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Bitcoin: An Axiomatic Approach and an Impossibility ...
Bitcoin in the Headlines: Macroeconomics Debated
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Anyone here that knows any good articles on the Macroeconomics of Bitcoin?
Have been trying to find articles about the Macroeconomics of Bitcoin. The few articles I've found are behind paywalls, and I'm a bit hestitant to buy them as its hard to know the quality of the article beforehand. Greatly appreciate any help!
I'm going on a financial podcast for Boomers and they are looking for me to make the case that Boomers should allocate at least some funds to Bitcoin. Safety is a primary concern, so I'm thinking social proof is the way to go. I'm looking for examples of how big Bitcoin is (it's the X largest currency in the world) and how liquid it is (transacts X per day). Perhaps examples of large investors that have invested in Bitcoin (Paul Tudor Jones, Bill Miller, University endowments?) Companies that are in on BTC (Overstock, MicroStrategy) Countries that have adopted Bitcoin, (you can pay your taxes in Switzerland), etc. If there's a way to explain the massive computing power behind Bitcoin that makes sense to a Boomer, that would be good too... Just looking for memorable facts that Boomers could take away without getting too much in the weeds. (e.g. they may not understand hashpower, etc.)
A criticism of the article "Six monetarist errors: why emission won't feed inflation"
(be gentle, it's my first RI attempt, :P; I hope I can make justice to the subject, this is my layman understanding of many macro subjects which may be flawed...I hope you can illuminate me if I have fallen short of a good RI) Introduction So, today a heterodox leaning Argentinian newspaper, Ambito Financiero, published an article criticizing monetarism called "Six monetarist errors: why emission won't feed inflation". I find it doesn't properly address monetarism, confuses it with other "economic schools" for whatever the term is worth today and it may be misleading, so I was inspired to write a refutation and share it with all of you. In some ways criticizing monetarism is more of a historical discussion given the mainstream has changed since then. Stuff like New Keynesian models are the bleeding edge, not Milton Friedman style monetarism. It's more of a symptom that Argentinian political culture is kind of stuck in the 70s on economics that this things keep being discussed. Before getting to the meat of the argument, it's good to have in mind some common definitions about money supply measures (specifically, MB, M1 and M2). These definitions apply to US but one can find analogous stuff for other countries. Argentina, for the lack of access to credit given its economic mismanagement and a government income decrease because of the recession, is monetizing deficits way more than before (like half of the budget, apparently, it's money financed) yet we have seen some disinflation (worth mentioning there are widespread price freezes since a few months ago). The author reasons that monetary phenomena cannot explain inflation properly and that other explanations are needed and condemns monetarism. Here are the six points he makes: 1.Is it a mechanical rule?
This way, we can ask by symmetry: if a certainty exists that when emission increases, inflation increases, the reverse should happen when emission becomes negative, obtaining negative inflation. Nonetheless, we know this happens: prices have an easier time increasing and a lot of rigidity decreasing. So the identity between emission and inflation is not like that, deflation almost never exists and the price movement rhythm cannot be controlled remotely only with money quantity. There is no mechanical relationship between one thing and the other.
First, the low hanging fruit: deflation is not that uncommon, for those of you that live in US and Europe it should be obvious given the difficulties central banks had to achieve their targets, but even Argentina has seen deflation during its depression 20 years ago. Second, we have to be careful with what we mean by emission. A statement of quantity theory of money (extracted from "Money Growth and Inflation: How Long is the Long-Run?") would say:
Inflation occurs when the average level of prices increases. Individual price increases in and of themselves do not equal inflation, but an overall pattern of price increases does. The price level observed in the economy is that which leads the quantity of money supplied to equal the quantity of money demanded. The quantity of money supplied is largely controlled by the [central bank]. When the supply of money increases or decreases, the price level must adjust to equate the quantity of money demanded throughout the economy with the quantity of money supplied. The quantity of money demanded depends not only on the price level but also on the level of real income, as measured by real gross domestic product (GDP), and a variety of other factors including the level of interest rates and technological advances such as the invention of automated teller machines. Money demand is widely thought to increase roughly proportionally with the price level and with real income. That is, if prices go up by 10 percent, or if real income increases by 10 percent, empirical evidence suggests people want to hold 10 percent more money. When the money supply grows faster than the money demand associated with rising real incomes and other factors, the price level must rise to equate supply and demand. That is, inflation occurs. This situation is often referred to as too many dollars chasing too few goods. Note that this theory does not predict that any money-supply growth will lead to inflation—only that part of money supply growth that exceeds the increase in money demand associated with rising real GDP (holding the other factors constant).
So it's not mere emission, but money supply growing faster than money demand which we should consider. So negative emission is not necessary condition for deflation in this theory. It's worth mentioning that the relationship with prices is observed for a broad measure of money (M2) and after a lag. From the same source of this excerpt one can observe in Fig. 3a the correlation between inflation and money growth for US becomes stronger the longer data is averaged. Price rigidities don't have to change this long term relationship per se. But what about causality and Argentina? This neat paper shows regressions in two historical periods: 1976-1989 and 1991-2001. The same relationship between M2 and inflation is observed, stronger in the first, highly inflationary period and weaker in the second, more stable, period. The regressions a 1-1 relationship in the high inflation period but deviates a bit in the low inflation period (yet the relationship is still there). Granger causality, as interpreted in the paper, shows prices caused money growth in the high inflation period (arguably because spending was monetized) while the reverse was true for the more stable period. So one can argue that there is a mechanical relationship, albeit one that is more complicated than simple QTOM theory. The relationship is complicated too for low inflation economies, it gets more relevant the higher inflation is. Another point the author makes is that liquidity trap is often ignored. I'll ignore the fact that you need specific conditions for the liquidity trap to be relevant to Argentina and address the point. Worth noting that while market monetarists (not exactly old fashioned monetarists) prefer alternative explanations for monetary policy with very low interest rates, this phenomena has a good monetary basis, as explained by Krugman in his famous japanese liquidity trap paper and his NYT blog (See this and this for some relevant articles). The simplified version is that while inflation may follow M2 growth with all the qualifiers needed, central banks may find difficulties targeting inflation when interest rates are low and agents are used to credible inflation targets. Central banks can change MB, not M2 and in normal times is good enough, but at those times M2 is out of control and "credibly irresponsible" policies are needed to return to normal (a more detailed explanation can be found in that paper I just linked, go for it if you are still curious). It's not like monetary policy is not good, it's that central banks have to do very unconventional stuff to achieve in a low interest rate environment. It's still an open problem but given symmetric inflation targeting policies are becoming more popular I'm optimistic. 2 - Has inflation one or many causes?
In Argentina we know that the main determinant of inflation is dollar price increases. On that, economic concentration of key markets, utility price adjustments, fuel prices, distributive struggles, external commodity values, expectatives, productive disequilibrium, world interest rates, the economic cycle, stationality and external sector restrictions act on it too. Let's see a simple example: during Macri's government since mid 2017 to 2019 emission was practically null, but when in 2018 the dollar value doubled, inflation doubled too (it went from 24% to 48% in 2018) and it went up again a year later. We see here that the empirical validity of monetarist theory was absent.
For the first paragraph, one could try to run econometric tests for all those variables, at least from my layman perspective. But given that it doesn't pass the smell test (has any country used that in its favor ignoring monetary policy? Also, I have shown there is at least some evidence for the money-price relationship before), I'll try to address what happened in Macri's government and if monetarism (or at least some reasonable extension of it) cannot account for it. For a complete description of macroeconomic policy on that period, Sturzenegger account is a good one (even if a bit unreliable given he was the central banker for that government and he is considered to have been a failure). The short version is that central banks uses bonds to manage monetary policy and absorb money; given the history of defaults for the country, the Argentinian Central Bank (BCRA) uses its own peso denominated bonds instead of using treasury bonds. At that time period, the BCRA still financed the treasury but the amount got reduced. Also, it emitted pesos to buy dollar reserves, then sterilized them, maybe risking credibility further. Near the end of 2017 it was evident the government had limited appetite for budget cuts, it had kind of abandoned its inflation target regime and the classic problem of fiscal dominance emerged, as it's shown in the classic "Unpleasant monetarist arithmetic" paper by Wallace and Sargent. Monetary policy gets less effective when the real value of bonds falls, and raising interest rates may be counterproductive in that environment. Rational expectations are needed to complement QTOM. So, given that Argentina promised to go nowhere with reform, it was expected that money financing would increase at some point in the future and BCRA bonds were dumped in 2018 and 2019 as their value was perceived to have decreased, and so peso demand decreased. It's not that the dollar value increased and inflation followed, but instead that peso demand fell suddenly! The IMF deal asked for MB growth to be null or almost null but that doesn't say a lot about M2 (which it's the relevant variable here). Without credible policies, the peso demand keeps falling because bonds are dumped even more (see 2019 for a hilariously brutal example of that). It's not emission per se, but rather that it doesn't adjust properly to peso demand (which is falling). That doesn't mean increasing interest rates is enough to achieve it, following Wallace and Sargent model. This is less a strict proof that a monetary phenomenon is involved and more stating that the author hasn't shown any problem with that, there are reasonable models for this situation. It doesn't look like an clear empirical failure to me yet. 3 - Of what we are talking about when we talk about emission? The author mentions many money measures (M0, M1, M2) but it doesn't address it meaningfully as I tried to do above. It feels more like a rhetorical device because there is no point here except "this stuff exists". Also, it's worth pointing that there are actual criticisms to make to Friedman on those grounds. He failed to forecast US inflation at some points when he switched to M1 instead of using M2, although he later reverted that. Monetarism kind of "failed" there (it also "failed" in the sense that modern central banks don't use money, but instead interest rates as their main tool; "failed" because despite being outdated, it was influential to modern central banking). This is often brought to this kind of discussions like if economics hasn't moved beyond that. For an account of Friedman thoughts on monetary policies and his failures, see this. 4 - Why do many countries print and inflation doesn't increase there? There is a mention about the japanese situation in the 90s (the liquidity trap) which I have addressed. The author mentions that many countries "printed" like crazy during the pandemic, and he says:
Monetarism apologists answer, when confronted with those grave empirical problems that happen in "serious countries", that the population "trusts" their monetary authorities, even increasing the money demand in those place despite the emission. Curious, though, it's an appeal to "trust" implying that the relationship between emission and inflation is not objective, but subjective and cultural: an appreciation that abandons mechanicism and the basic certainty of monetarism, because evaluations and diagnostics, many times ideologic, contextual or historical intervene..
That's just a restatement of applying rational expectations to central bank operations. I don't see a problem with that. Rational expectations is not magic, it's an assessment of future earnings by economic actors. Humans may not 100% rational but central banking somehow works on many countries. You cannot just say that people are ideologues and let it at that. What's your model? Worth noting the author shills for bitcoin a bit in this section, for more cringe. 5 - Are we talking of a physical science or a social science? Again, a vague mention of rational expectations ("populists and pro market politicians could do the same policies with different results because of how agents respond ideologically and expectatives") without handling the subject meaningfully. It criticizes universal macroeconomic rules that apply everywhere (this is often used to dismiss evidence from other countries uncritically more than as a meaningful point). 6 - How limits work?
The last question to monetarism allows to recognize it something: effectively we can think on a type of vinculation between emission and inflation in extreme conditions. That means, with no monetary rule, no government has the need of taxes but instead can emit and spend all it needs without consequence. We know it's not like that: no government can print infinitely without undesirable effects.
Ok, good disclaimer, but given what he wrote before, what's the mechanism which causes money printing to be inflationary at some point? It was rejected before but now it seems that it exists. What was even the point of the article?
Now, the problem is thinking monetarism on its extremes: without emission we have inflation sometimes, on others we have no inflation with emission, we know that if we have negative emission that doesn't guarantees us negative inflation, but that if emission is radically uncontrolled there will economic effects.
As I wrote above, that's not what monetarism (even on it's simpler form) says, nor a consequence of it. You can see some deviations in low inflation environment but it's not really Argentina's current situation.
Let's add other problems: the elastic question between money and prices is not evident. Neither is time lags in which can work or be neutral. So the question is the limit cases for monetarism which has some reason but some difficulty in explaining them: by which and it what moments rules work and in which it doesn't.
I find the time lag thing to be a red herring. You can observe empirically and not having a proper short/middle run model doesn't invalidate QTOM in the long run. While it may be that increasing interest rates or freezing MB is not effective, that's less a problem of the theory and more a problem of policy implementation. Conclusion: I find that the article doesn't truly get monetarism to begin with (see the points it makes about emission and money demand), neither how it's implemented in practice, nor seems to be aware of more modern theories that, while put money on the background, don't necessarily invalidate it (rational expectation ideas, and eventually New Keynesian stuff which addresses stuff like liquidity traps properly). There are proper criticisms to be made to Friedman old ideas but he still was a relevant man in his time and the economic community has moved on to new, better theories that have some debt to it. I feel most economic discussion about monetarism in Argentina is a strawman of mainstream economics or an attack on Austrians more than genuine points ("monetarism" is used as a shorthand for those who think inflation is a monetary phenomenon more than referring to Friedman and his disciples per se).
Cryptocurrencies in the Era of COVID-19 (Part One)
https://preview.redd.it/cscwryttr4o51.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ddd90997810c0cc46cf8e6b5cac534cd8f9c796f To speak of “post-COVID” is not only premature, but perpetuates the myth that the mere passage of time will lead to some kind of universal recovery. The reality is rather more harsh. Currently, the only positive dynamic at work is that the patient will learn to cope with the symptoms of a congenital condition, until, and if, the underlying problem can be resolved. While we would prefer otherwise, this is the Era of COVID. The opening up of Europe’s Mediterranean tourist industry in the summer of 2020 was always going to increase the rate of COVID transmission, but the experiment was justified in terms of local economic dependency on foreign visitors vis-a-vis the health costs, the degree of disease impact, and overly testing the limits of voluntary social distancing. From the perspective of the pathogen, however, absolutely nothing has changed. In terms of global polity, economic policy and social welfare, everything has changed, is changing, and may well end up creating scenarios out of all recognition. Critical to appreciating the “why?” of this reorientation is the recognition that only a raft of temporary, but wholly unsustainable macroeconomic policies, have kept the global economy functioning. The problem, however, is that it is a bit like cheating a wise man. You only get away with it once. Thereafter you have to accept realities and manage how they play out as best as you can. Central to the latter is the fact that until a vaccine is developed, ours is the era of socio-economic COVID-19 management. All other determinations derive from where they stand in regards this polarity; the spread of the disease on the one part and the damage done to the global economy on the other. The balance between lives and livelihoods. In reality the two are not finally distinct. The acceptance of higher COVID-19 infection will have economic costs both over the short and long term. The worry is that these could be far, far greater than many currently anticipate. Critically, that those people with mild or no symptoms today, could develop significant health problems in their tens of millions as they get older. That the virus lays dormant at a cellular level but surfaces to cause physical problems in the future, negatively impacting the functioning of vital organs, including the brain. As this happens the economic costs will become significant. To restate. Temporary economic measures funded by quantitative easing have allowed the global economy to maintain a degree of normalcy, but over time these will inevitably weaken the economy they were designed to protect. In similitude, the temporary relief of putting short term spending needs on the credit card eventually crashes into the wall of maximised indebtedness. The consequence is either the hardship of paying back what has been borrowed, or simply walking away from the debt and being cut off from credit thereafter. The last time the global economy faced anything like this level of catastrophic dialectic was after the two world wars. For the people of Germany and France coins and banknotes were minted with ever greater number of zeros, but ever reduced buying power. In the end these currencies were simply abandoned—replaced with the Reichsmark and nouveau franc respectively. The former at a rate of one trillion (sic) to one! Stability resulted, but it must be underscored, because the printing presses were turned off. The trick was to introduce a medium of exchange whose physical number was very tightly defined and limited. As long as the temptation to cheat when you run out of money is resisted, all will be well. All this may prefigure a nouveau dollar, digital yuan or an altogether different scenario may unfold. This is where the current locus of speculation—financial and theoretical— currently lies. Any considerations in these respects needs to take into account the following factors as delimiting the parameters of probable outcomes:
Structural shifts in global economic activity away from travel, leisure, tourism, some automotive and manufacturing towards health, security, robotics, datacom and a range of advanced technologies. This not only portends shifts in investment between sectors, but more graphically, shifts in wealth between regions and nations.
Growing tensions within the European Union. With many of the southern states so highly dependent on tourism, significantly declining income will further exacerbate the north-south wealth gap, and thus tensions over budgetary redistribution.
Structural shifts in global geo-politics and trade away from multilateralism towards bilateralism, supply chain security, high-tech protectionism and hegemonic alliances.
A new era of Western statism necessary to reduce the threat of a severe economic depression. This will be directed to enhanced infrastructure projects, support for advanced, green and digital technologies, new strategies on preventative and remote health care, and internal security and surveillance.
Social acceptance of greater government intrusion and regulation as the price of minimising the impact of COVID, future pandemic threats and economic downturn.
More important than any of these are the underlying shift towards new orthodoxies at the expense of tearing up the old order. This not only includes the fundamentals of government macroeconomic theory (and thus policy) but the rules underpinning all commercial and currency infrastructures. “Fundamental” because the three are inextricably linked, yet autonomous enough for one to affect the other with a potential impact so dramatic it is difficult to overstate. These paradigms are so new, and their final impact so remote, that the most significant element of their existence is easily missed: A year ago such a narrative would have been viewed as sheer lunacy. A year from now so obvious as to merit an historical footnote. Emerging from the rabbit hole everything will be different. Everything is up in the air and everyone is scrambling to find an anchor. In the meanwhile, popular investment ethos is myopic, entirely oblivious to the undercurrents which will mark the end of the status quo. Somewhere along the line, a soaring Stockmarket has become an end in itself. Wealth, the mere addition of fiat zeros. The intention of the original cryptocurrency was to sidestep this fallacy. To extricate and preserve real wealth from constantly shifting foundations. Like all ideals, it has been imperfectly realised. No one can deny that the meteoric rise in Bitcoins’ value from $327 to almost $12,000 (at the time of writing) reflects some degree of speculation, but it also reflects substantive, intelligibly based doubts as to the fundamentals sustaining fiat currencies. They may still exist in five or ten years, but what will they tangibly be worth? Eventual outcomes here—including which cryptocurrencies prove their worth —will be determined by our collective actions. History reveals that whatever divergences take place, in the end the solid and substantial always win out. Lies are exposed and tyranny eventually falls. Shaky assets yield to solid. Bad money drives good to a premium. (Subsequent additions to this article will examine critical factors determining the path of cryptocurrency evolution in the era of COVID as these arise, including government regulations).
https://preview.redd.it/io0mkfpayel51.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=839666f628a9ae85fa3ef4ffb020c1c2ba598683 As the first country to industrialise in the 1760s, Britain’s manufacturing revolution set the world on one of the greatest practical and ubiquitous changes in human history. Even more extraordinary is the fact that Britain’s industrialisation remained way ahead of potential competition for decades. Only in the early 1900s did historians get to grips with the issues of causation. Max Weber’s pithy answer “the Protestant work ethic” pointed to Puritan seriousness, diligence, fiscal prudence and hard work. Others include the establishment of the Bank of England in 1694 as an essentially corollary by creating the necessary conditions for financial stability. In contrast, Continental Europe lurched from one national debt crisis to another, then through itself headlong into the Napoleonic wars. Unsurprisingly, it was not until after 1815 industrialisation took place on the European mainland where it was spearheaded by the new country of Belgium. 250 years latter with the launch of Bitcoin another revolution had begun; though this one more commercial in nature than industrial. Though the full impact has yet to be played out, the parallels between these two historical events are already striking. Bitcoin may not match the obviousness of industrialisation, but the underlying pragmatics touch on the very foundations of the non-barter economy. Like the establishment of the Bank of England, the creation of the cryptocurrency infrastructure has been prompted by ongoing and worsening threats to financial instability; systemic fault-lines created by macroeconomic challenges flowing from the 2008 crash. For those who could “join the dots” in 2008, there was the realisation that central banks no longer existed as guardians and protectors of national currencies but the tools of creating politicised market distortions; abandoning their duty to preserve wealth in favour of creating the conditions for limitless, cheap government debt. While many of the underlying intentions were benign, inherently the process worked to punish savers and reward reckless debt. This anticipation of on-going instability surrounding fiat currencies and the viability of crypto alternatives has proved more prescient than could have ever been previously imagined. Within a short space of time a wave of undercurrents gave rise to new vocabularies, outlooks and expectations which have impacted commercial and investment transactions, a change never more acutely observed than today, when even against the backdrop of the COVID crisis Central Banks are rushing to create their own “digital” krona, pound, dollar etc. “Digital” may represent a confusing nomenclature, however, as these are not cryptocurrencies in the true sense, and certainly not part of decentralised finance (DeFi). The digital krona does, however, manifest the increasingly powerful impact that the cryptocurrency ecosystem is having on mainstream banking and government behaviour. As with Britain’s industrial revolution, it has taken time for the potential of cryptocoins to find more energetic traction. Over the past 12 years cryptocurrencies have moved from unknown, to novel, to significant and growing interest. As a result, profound changes are underway affecting the mechanics by which investors, the investment industry, wealth mangers and even the commercial banking sector is engaging with cryptocurrencies. This interest has quickened as we enter into a period of deep economic unknown and growing awareness that structural soundness is shifting away from traditional investment options. Intelligent engagement requires cryptocurrency investors/wealth managers to accurately understand and correctly explicate the nature of these influences and assess their potential impact. This article suggests seven distinct elements (a non- exhaustive list) as currently ranking definitive importance:
Cryptocurrencies comprise account for only a tiny fraction of the global economy. At an estimated value of $375 billion, this is several orders of magnitude smaller than a world GDP of $35 trillion (2019). Assuming other factors are favourable, there is clearly room for growth.
Cryptocurrency success will mark the end of critical aspects of Central Banking monopoly; by revealing the fictitious nature of fiat currencies as a principle; by offering a more competitive vehicle for facilitating commercial transactions; and providing a more stable medium to store monetised assets. Apart from stability, cryptocurrencies offer real returns on “cash” deposits, something which the fiat banking system has long since abandoned. (The reasons for the latter are deeply significant and will be followed up in a subsequent article).
Cryptocurrency success will hasten the end of the dollar monopoly in global commerce. Indeed, at current trending, changes in trading mechanics may speedily evolve to the point that such “reserve currencies” no longer have a function at all. Analysts once speculated that it was only a matter of time before the Chinese yuan displaced the dollar, in the same way that the dollar displaced the pound. The edifice which supports the concept of a “global reserve currency” is weakening. The latter’s demise will have significant implications regarding reducing political influence over global finance, as well as nations’ abilities to run longterm balance of payments deficits, current account deficits and borrow at little or no interest.
Cryptocurrencies as an ecosystem—assuming the current direction of evolution continues—will increasingly constrain, redirect and set the parameters to government macroeconomic policies. Certainly sound alternatives to fiat currencies will drive the latter to the periphery of commercial life, concomitantly reducing the number of tools the nation state has at its disposal to regulate or respond to changing economic conditions. This especially means setting meaningful interest rates. Above all, it means that government financial engagement can no longer be a rule unto itself, it will have to engage by the same principles as everyone else. A level playing field here has dramatic implications—and will again be picked up in a subsequent article.
Cryptocurrencies represent a wider range of disruptive elements affecting the commercial ecosystem. Among the most direct is the ability to raise finance or enter into other commercial transactions with little to no red tape, intrusive regulation or political interference. In short it de-politicises, de-institutionalises and de-centralises investment and payment options, while retaining many of the protective and other beneficial aspects present in traditional finance.
Cryptocurrencies offer rapid commercial advances enfranchising the one- third of the global population who do not have a bank account—but do have a mobile phone—and concomitantly enable business that currently cannot accept electronic forms of payment to move into digital commerce. In the way that cellular communication revolutionised sub-saharan Africa in the early 2000s, so we may anticipate some parallel here as regards ease and ubiquity of payment “wallets” and their positive impact on developing economy dynamics.
Cryptocurrency potential increasingly offers a route to security and liquid asset preservation/growth in a world where fundamentals are being shifted out of all recognition; driven by economic policies predicated firstly on the priority of COVID management and secondly on the move away from rules-based multilateralism towards bilateralism. Global cooperation is yielding to the demands of national integrity, security of supply and highly aggressive competition in key enabling technologies such as 5G, AI, quantum computing and encryption, which themselves will have as profound impact on cryptocurrency evolution as the creation of the bitcoin itself.
Against the backdrop of the essential limits of fiat currencies, current geo- macroeconomic policies and a new emerging world order, cryptocurrencies offer vast potential:
An efficiency facilitating frictionless commerce/investment.
A medium of stability against the backdrop of uncertainty and inflation.
Increased security in value transfer and wealth management.
Optimum autonomy in an increasing intrusive climate.
“Cash” asset preservation/growth in a world of negative interest rates.
In all this we may well have come full circle to 1694 and the stability and security that the establishment of the Bank of England was intended to entrench—but now it is now de-centralised finance that will get us there. Article source: https://www.finxflo.com/news/detail/5127
Now in its fifth year of publication, Ledger—the first peer-reviewed journal dedicated entirely to the study of cryptocurrencies and shared ledgers—is open for submissions!
Ledger publishes full-length articles describing original research in all areas related to cryptocurrency and its intersection with mathematics, computer science, engineering, law and economics. Manuscripts are selected based on conceptual advancement, novelty, technical quality, and general interest to the journal’s audience. Submissions of articles related to all areas of cryptocurrency research are welcome, including (but not limited to) the following topics:
Development of new cryptocurrency computer algorithms/protocols
Analysis of existing cryptocurrency algorithms/protocols
New cryptographic methods for cryptocurrencies
Network analysis of transactions on public ledgers
Macroeconomic studies of cryptocurrencies
Computer hardware design of new components
Novel applications of cryptocurrencies
Legal commentary on cryptocurrency uses
Finance and the effect of decentralized ledgers on markets
Sociological studies of the implications of the rise of cryptocurrencies
Analysis of proposed changes to the Bitcoin protocol, etc.
The CBDC Road to Practice-The Framework of LDF 2020
The CBDC Road To Practice——The Framework of LDF 2020 March 8, 2020 By JH( Lend0X Project Architect) The Market Structure Analysis of CBDC I. CBDC helps GDP growth CBDC can be used as cash for commercial banks or as a medium for (government) bonds. The way in which assets are issued will have a huge impact on GDP growth. For commercial banks, the CBDC issued by the central bank is the source of assets. For customers, the products under the CBDC are the use of funds. Blockchain-based CBDC and bank account-based digital cash and banknotes are generally considered to have a huge difference in the contribution of GDP to quality, cost, and efficiency. https://preview.redd.it/fji1rqdxequ41.png?width=411&format=png&auto=webp&s=10647fa76b42056f80527cfd5342a2f8c1d1df1a Qualitatively The Bank of England states in the 2019 study that the macroeconomic effects of issuing central bank digital currency (CBDC), the following three advantages of digital currency can increase interest-bearing central bank liabilities, and distributed ledgers can compete with bank deposits as a medium of exchange. In the digital currency economy model 1. The model in the report matches the adjusted US currency issuance before the crisis, and we find that if the issuance of CBDC accounts for 30% of GDP, compared with government bonds, it may permanently increase GDP by 3%.
Reduce real interest rates, reverse taxes and currency transaction costs.
As a second monetary policy tool, countercyclical CBDC price or quantity rules can greatly improve the ability of the central bank to stabilize the business cycle.
Cost II. The issuing system and payment structure of CBDC The BIS research report pointed out that CBDC has many open questions, such as whether they should be retail or wholesale? Directly or indirectly to consumers? Account-based or token-based? Based on distributed ledgers, a centralized model or a hybrid model? How does CBDC pay across borders? https://preview.redd.it/6dczkw83fqu41.png?width=249&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c9f31f371ccbeab21d634b6a01ee0bd5a8b0f08 Of the three issuance systems (indirect, direct, and hybrid), CBDC can only be issued directly by the central bank. In The first type of indirect issuance structure，the CBDC is the indirect architecture ,and is done indirectly. ICBDC in the hands of consumers (such as the digital currency issued by the 4 largest state-owned commercial banks in DCEP) represents commercial banks (such as the 4 largest state-owned commercial banks) debt. In the second type of direct and third type of mixed issuance structure, consumers are creditors of the central bank. In the direct CBDC model (type 2), the central bank processes all payments in real time and therefore maintains a record of all retail assets. The hybrid CBDC model is an intermediate solution where the consumer is a creditor of the central bank, but real-time payments are handled by the intermediary, and the central bank keeps copies of all retail CBDCs in order to transfer them from one payment service provider to another in the event of a technical failure. In terms of efficiency Three payment architecture architectures allow account-based or token-based access. Although its DCEP digital currency is not a token in the blockchain, it is similar to the token in blockchain in key features such as non-double spending, anonymity, non-forgeability, security, transferability, separability, and programmability. Therefore, DCEP still belongs to the Token paradigm, not the account paradigm. All four combinations are possible for any CBDC architecture (indirect, direct or hybrid) whatever the payment structure is based on the centralization or centralization mode, the account or token mode of blockchain smart contract account . But in different structures, central banks, commercial banks, and the private sector operate different parts of the infrastructure. At present, the DCEP issuance structure adopts a two-tier structure, and its payment system——four major state-owned commercial banks issuing four ICDBC tokens. Its technical architecture features are consistent with the first indirect distribution method. Because DCEP is positioned as digital cash (M0 cash) and the central bank's DCEP supports offline mobile payment, considering its huge payment transactions, a centralized account system for DCEP payment methods is essential. Offline Payment methods access to mobile wallets based on tokens are also essential for commercial banks. https://preview.redd.it/0wvltv0ffqu41.png?width=411&format=png&auto=webp&s=4fd728ece4e869126b6ec8e90cd1962302a424bd LDF Central Bank Digital Currency CBDC Project Development At present, the technical framework of the CBDC and the selection of infrastructure are divided into the R & D and cooperation of domestic application planning DCEP application scenarios; its overseas expansion goal supports the development of the “Belt and Road” digital asset ecosystem. DCEP adopts a double-layer system of commercial banks and central banks to adapt to the existing currency systems of sovereign countries in the world. China, as a currency issuing country, has strong economic strength and basic conditions necessary for world currencies. At the same time, DCEP can also save the issued funds, calculate the inflation rate and other macroeconomic indicators more accurately, better curb illegal activities such as money laundering and terrorist financing, and facilitate foreign exchange circulation worldwide. 1. LDF——the combination of CBDC program and token economy Only after answering questions such as the openness of CBDC currency itself, can we solve how the application of multiple blockchain industries such as LDF digital asset issuance platform, digital asset support bond platform, and lending and other CBDC currency "product traceability", "digital identity authentication", "judicial depository", "secure communication"and other basic applications, these LDFs are an important direction for exploring blockchain applications. 2.Select the most widely used blockchain technology as the basic platform LDF introduced CBDC to use blockchain technology because it is the most mature landing foundation platform. It has the advantages of decentralization, openness, autonomy, anonymity, and tamper resistance. It can make the entire system information highly transparent, its data stability and the reliability is extremely high, which solves the point-to-point trust problem and can reduce transaction and operating costs. At present, the underlying technologies of mainstream digital assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT are all blockchain technologies. At the same time, the application scenarios of the blockchain not only include digital currency, but also include many fields such as "product traceability", "digital identity authentication", "judicial depository", "secure communication" and so on. 3.Interpretation of DCEP and selection of LDF blockchain technology architecture ·DCEP does not use a real blockchain like Libra, but may use a centralized ledger based on the UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) model, and it still belongs to the Token paradigm. This centralized ledger reflects the digital currency issuance and registration system maintained by the central bank. It does not need to run consensus algorithms and will not be subject to the performance bottleneck of the blockchain. The blockchain may be used for the definitive registration of digital currencies and occupy a subsidiary position. https://preview.redd.it/655gvo1ofqu41.png?width=273&format=png&auto=webp&s=eaf1da72ef45db094067e5523b1a92cc9a0f71c1 ·Users need to use DCEP wallet. The core of the wallet is a pair of public and private keys. The public key is also the address, where the digital certificate of RMB is stored. This digital certificate is not a token in the blockchain in the complete sense, but it is consistent with the Token in many key features, and it is based on 100% RMB reserve. Users can initiate transfer transactions between addresses through the wallet private key. The transfer transaction is recorded directly in the centralized ledger by the central bank. In this way, DCEP implements account loose coupling and controlled anonymity. ·Although DCEP is a currency tool, the third-party payment is mainly a payment tool after "disconnecting directly", but there are many similarities between the two. If DCEP is good enough in terms of technical efficiency and business development, and from the perspective of users, third-party payments can bring the same experience after DCEP and "disconnect directly". Therefore, DCEP has a mutual substitution relationship with third-party payment in the application after “disconnecting directly”. ·DCEP will have a tightening effect on M2, and M2 tightening reflects the contraction of the banking system to a certain extent. Digital currency does not pay interest, and the People's Bank of China has no plan to completely replace cash with DCEP, so DCEP will not constitute a new monetary policy tool. DCEP has strong policy implications for central bank monitoring of capital flows, as well as anti-money laundering, anti-terrorist financing and anti-tax evasion. Therefore, the supervisory function of DCEP exceeds that of monetary policy. ·The impact of DCEP on RMB internationalization is mainly reflected in cross-border payments based on digital currencies. Although cross-border payments including DCEP, can promote RMB internationalization, cross-border payment is only a necessary condition for RMB internationalization, not a sufficient one. The internationalization of the RMB is inseparable from a series of institutional arrangements. 4.The effectiveness of digital currencies in the LDF framework CBDC is positioned as digital cash or currency under the LDF framework, and the remaining various tokens, cryptocurrencies, and stablecoins are treated as digital assets. The application platforms involved in LDF (asset mortgage bond platform, digital asset issuance platform, and lending). The underlying assets of LDF are part of the digital asset equity. The reason why LDF uses CBDC and stable currency as currency is due to ·LDF framework links three financial ecosystems ·CBDC has the characteristics of currency transaction, accounting unit and value storage have been verified ·Stablecoins can be used as a payment tool for token economic platforms, not currencies The stable currency selected by LDF should effectively play the payment function of the currency, and meet the requirements of the following LDF framework: ·Must be universally accepted ·Must be easy to standardize in order to determine its value Due to the characteristics of DvP (payment is settlement) based on blockchain technology, LDF's smart contracts have the characteristics of decentralized intermediaries, such as the function of asset account contracts partially replacing account settlement; the asset pool contract replacing SPV, and the cash flow contract replacing assets Payment intermediary The digital currency selected as an LDF that meets the above standards is very important for the effectiveness of the LDF framework. Otherwise, the platform built by the LDF framework will not be able to achieve the capabilities of distributed ledgers and DAO organizations. LDF regulatory compliance LDF chooses CBDC (DCEP) as the construction of digital asset transaction payment platform, which has the characteristics of DvP (asset payment is settlement). It supervises compliance with the selection of digital currencies that support smart contract accounts and trading platforms (anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing) has a decisive role. DCEP takes the form of loosely coupled accounts to achieve controlled anonymity. The current electronic payment methods, such as bank cards and third-party payment platforms, all use the method of tightly coupling accounts, that is, funds must be transferred through real-name bank accounts. But With the improvement of people's awareness of information security, electronic payment cannot meet people's demand for anonymous payment. The digital currency of the central bank adopts the form of loosely coupled accounts, enabling asset transfers without the need for bank accounts, so as to achieve controllable anonymity. Unlike Bitcoin's complete anonymity, the central bank has the right to obtain the transaction data within the legal scope, and the source of digital currency can be traced through big data analysis, while other commercial banks and merchants cannot obtain relevant information. This mechanism, while protecting data security and citizen privacy, also enables illegal activities such as money laundering to be effectively supervised. Association of LDF's DAO Autonomous Economic Model with CBDC The direct DCB (such as DCEP) or LIBRA of the LDF token can quantify the value of DAO / DAE through a certain transformation and analysis, and predict its future long-term growth rate and the problems to be solved by the economic model, the solution path adopted, and the overall structure design, technological innovation, team composition, development vision and roadmap. https://preview.redd.it/txg4mq0sfqu41.png?width=269&format=png&auto=webp&s=a69b919cf43c9115f43525f8d851ee1e4fbf5a1f ·The LDF economic model transplants the estimation model of the asset value of the general economic system to DAO 2.0 organization and market management, so as to establish a unified evaluation system for the value generated by the distributed autonomous economy (DAE). The endogenous economic growth model considers important parameters such as savings rate, population growth rate, and technological progress as endogenous variables. The long-term growth rate of the economy can be determined by the interior of the model. Moreover, the LDF economic model takes the number of tokens, nodes, and technical inputs of the distributed organization as similar parameters. The CBDC (such as DCEP) or LIBRA directly targeted by the token can quantify the value of DAO / DAE through certain transformation and analysis and predict its long-term growth rate in the future. ·In response to the special needs of transactions and asset on-chain in the blockchain field, the LDF economic model has developed a DAE (Decentralized Autonomous Economic) protocol group specifically designed to eliminate various pain points of decentralization in the blockchain field, and has developed corresponding LDF DAO DAPP, these agreements include: ·Issuance and trading of tokens based on smart contracts ·Distributed order submission and matching ·Transaction interest rate and mortgage method based on automatic discovery mechanism Therefore, whether it is a community member, an investor, or a blockchain project developer that develops applications on the LDF economic model, it can use the distributed rules, consensus mechanisms, infrastructure, and smart contracts provided by it to achieve the following purposes: ·Encrypted token asset transaction and circulation based on community autonomy ·Issue of new LDF tokens ·Construction, collaboration, management, voting, and decision- making of specific encryption token communities ·Develop a smart contract system for the dual factors of community node rights and workload ·Customized incentive standards for nodes with different interests Welcome to discuss with the author of this article, please contact via email:[email protected]
Cluey Learning is a ponzi scheme - Australian investors and parents stay away!
I write this as a concerned investor who recently was approached to consider an investment in Cluey Learning. Cluey Learning is selling a dream equivalent to a Bitcoin Scam. I wrote this to ensure that Australian investors do their proper research before losing more money in this venture. If you want a copy of their investor presentation email us at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) and we will send you a copy. https://www.clueylearningscam.com/post/cutting-costs-maximizing-results Recently, Cluey Learning has been trying to raise capital at an approximately $45 million valuation with less than $1 million Aud in sales. This translates to a 45x sales multiple which is as high as companies like Zoom which are already profitable, at massive scale, with a disruptive technology advantage (the world’s number 1 beneficiary of the Coronavirus disruptions arguably). For some context, Kip McGrath has a valuation of $40 million and was founded 44 years ago and has revenue of $18 MM with $2.5 MM profit. Cluey Learning has been raising capital largely because of a lack of education technology expertise in the Australia market. This article should help to summarize why Cluey is a dangerous, speculative investment that will lose investors significant amount of money by only talking about their revenue and brushing over their growing operating losses. There are a number of fundamental issues with the Cluey Learning business that are not being accurately described to prospective investors. More info: https://www.clueylearningscam.com/post/cutting-costs-maximizing-results
Smart Investors Don’t Believe in Pure Tutoring Marketplaces: Tutoring marketplaces are poor businesses which sophisticated investors have largely stayed away from. People have tried and failed to monetize purely 1-1 online tutoring like tutor.com and tutorspree which have all stopped operating. Companies like Eurekely in New Zealand have also tried and failed to monetize and have been unable to raise any external financing. Varsity Tutors, after raising much money, continues to be unprofitable with slowing growth rates and declines in investor confidence.
Tutoring Marketplaces Haven’t Been Profitable: There are no large, profitable 1-1 tutoring marketplace businesses in the world. The world’s profitable, successful education companies include New Oriental, Tal Education Group and Benesse rely on large class sizes and premium brands which enable them to avoid the business of just matching students and tutors up and trying to capture a spread between them. Fast growing education technology companies such as Byjus monetize video content which has limited direct service costs. VIPKids has burnt through hundreds of millions of dollars of venture capital financing and is still not profitable and has had large issues fundraising in recent rounds despite the substantially more attractive backdrop of China which has more students with a higher willingness to pay and a much larger population and deeper adoption of tutoring and online learning offerings.
Commonly Cited Examples of Success in Tutoring Are Misrepresentations: Chegg, a Silicon Valley company, talks a lot about its tutoring business but it does no paid acquisition marketing because it knows this is unprofitable and upsells tutoring to its database of leads that use its subscription homework services and subscription textbook services.
Competition For Online Real Estate from Offline Players: Cluey Learning will, unless they dramatically change their advertised business, continue to lose money and lose progressively more money because the margin they can make from a student will continue to be less than they spend to acquire customers. Being online doesn’t give you any advantage acquiring students. KipMcGrath and other strong competitors continue to bid online for the same keywords that Cluey Learning is burning investor money on except Cluey has a far less economical business.
Unprofitable Unit Economics: KipMcGrath charges students approximately 55/hour for a class of 4 students and pays the teacher around 25/hour. This gives a revenue of 220 and a cost of 25 with a margin of 89%. Cluey Learning may charge around $50 and pay the tutors $30 and take a <50% gross margin which is virtually impossible to make any profits once you pay acquisition costs of customers (ignoring even the cost of salaries)
Huge Cashburn: Cluey Learning claims more than 160 employees on LinkedIn. If one assumes only 75 are full-time with an average salary of 100,000 the business is burning half a million or more a month. While Cluey can show more revenue by burning more money, this revenue is ultimately only being achieved by an unsustainable cash burn that the management team knows cannot easily change.
Dramatically Overestimated Target Market: Cluey, despite a focus on Australia, is already claiming a massive valuation citing a huge tutoring market. This market simply doesn’t exist anywhere like the scale being asserted. If you add up the tutoring revenue of major players across Kip McGrath, Matrix Education, NumberWorks, Dux College and private tutoring the market probably is $50 million or less per year annually across all of Australia. Players like Kip McGrath have been in the market for 40+ years and have had to leave Australia and go to the UK and NZ to find more growth because of caps in the domestic market. Cluey is talking to investors about a 1 billion+ market which overestimates the market size by 20x or more.
Cluey’s segment is particularly not growing fast: The highest spenders of tutoring tend to be from the Chinese-Australian community in Sydney at the competitive private schools. These students make up a significant amount of total revenue (Matrix alone is estimated to do $20 MM Aud of the revenue). These students prefer offline tutoring-in-general with highly specialized tutors. Cluey’s family centred, fun approach to learning targets a totally different demographic that is more akin to the students of Kip McGrath. As such they do miss and will continue to miss, the main segment of tutoring spending that is actually growing.
The macroeconomic environment for fundraising is collapsing: A business that is structurally unprofitable and relies on more and more rounds of funding burning cash to acquire revenue will not be able to continue indefinitely. Softbank’s portfolio of struggling companies like Oyo and WeWork show this clearly.
More info: https://www.clueylearningscam.com/post/cutting-costs-maximizing-results Overall, Cluey Learning is not a fraudulent business by the definition of law. They can unknowingly make inaccurate claims about the market size. They can unknowingly have overly optimistic claims about their unit economics. Given the experience of the team at Cluey, it is unlikely they are unaware of how inaccurate some of these claims are but we can give them the benefit of the doubt. The key message for investors is beware. Cluey is charging 45x their revenue last year for a business with a small target market size that isn’t growing very quickly, with a structurally unprofitable business model that has failed in far more attractive geographies and depending on investors who haven’t done proper research into their model to write the cheques to fund their multi-million dollar cash burn. Investors beware. It doesn't take any skill to spend your hard earned $1 to buy $0.50 cents of revenue, show all the fast revenue growth to the next investors to keep the ponzi scheme going. Ask to see their profits, their unit economics, their operating expenses and the truth will be blindingly obvious. More info: https://www.clueylearningscam.com/post/cutting-costs-maximizing-results
Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20190919(Market index 31 — Fear state)
https://preview.redd.it/ohzr58jf3kn31.png?width=432&format=png&auto=webp&s=7243012b0c5417a9ed5ecab1f85e44d93ddb564f Bank Of America Joins Marco Polo Blockchain Trade Network Bank of America has joined Marco Polo, a consortium working to bring efficiencies to international trade using blockchain technology. Founded by startups R3 and TradeIX, Marco Polo is built on R3’s Corda blockchain platform. The network aims to deliver real-time connectivity, greater visibility for trading relationships and lower barriers to accessing capital. China State Council: Promoting Integration Of New Technologies Like Blockchain Tech With Transportation Industry According to Xinhua News Agency, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council recently issued an outline for transportation construction in China. In terms of smart transportation innovation, the outline proposes to promote the deep integration of new technologies such as big data, Internet, artificial intelligence, and blockchain with the transportation industry. Arab Bank Switzerland Opens Bitcoin Custody, Brokerage Services Arab Bank Switzerland has partnered with blockchain technology firm Taurus to offer Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) custody and brokerage services to its clients. Serge Robin, the CEO of Arab Bank Switzerland — a Swiss institution that forms part of the Jordan-headquartered Arab Bank group — said: “We firmly believe that blockchain will disrupt the financial industry as we know it and we intend to be amongst the. The Turkish Government Has Announced Plans To Establish A National Blockchain Infrastructure According to a Cointelegraph report, the Turkish government has announced plans to establish a national blockchain infrastructure to utilize distributed ledger technology (DLT) in public administration, according to the Strategy 2023 presentation provided by The Ministry of Industry and Technology on Sept. 18 in Ankara. Strategy 2023 emphasizes blockchain and DLT as priorities for the coming year. The document refers to a Startup Genome survey that marks blockchain as one of the fastest-growing tech trends, with a 101.5% increase in early-stage startup funding globally.
Encrypted project calendar（September 19, 2019）
NRG/Energi:Energi (NRG) Energi will launch a trading competition on the KuCoin platform on September 9th. By September 19th, 800 NRG will be presented to the top 470 participants.ADA/Cardano:The Cardano (ADA) project official will host the Wyoming hackathon from September 19th to 22nd.KIN/Kin:The Kin (KIN) project team will host a community gathering in Toronto on September 19.BTC/Bitcoin:The 2019 Open Core Summit will be held in San Francisco from September 19th to 20th.BSV/Bitcoin SV:The Bitcoin SV (BSV) BSV Eco Conference will be held in Hangzhou, China on September 19th. OKEX will jointly host the event as a strategic partner of BSV.NPX/NaPoleonX:NaPoleonX (NPX) Binance DEX will be online NPX at 9:30 am (UTC) on September 19.VIDY:On-line IDAX exchange and opening the GOB/BTC trading market
Encrypted project calendar（September 20, 2019）
NULS / NULS:The NULS 2.0 Beta hackathon will be held from September 20th to September 21st, 2019.AE/Aeternity:Aeternity (AE) will hold “Cosmos One” conference in Prague, Czech Republic on September 20thCOCOS/COCOS:The Cocos-BCX (COCOS) Oasis Arena hackathon will take place from September 20th to 22nd in Shanghai, China (“GO Shanghai”).RVN/Ravencoin:The Ravencoin (RVN) Ravencoin project team will host the “Ravencoin Asia 2019” party in Seoul, South Korea on September 20.GOB:Go online on the IDAX exchange and open the GOB/BTC trading market
Encrypted project calendar（September 21, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 6th FINWISE Global Summit Macau will be held from September 21st to 22nd. Distributed Financial Technology (DeFi) is the main topic of this conference.OKB/OKB:OKB (OKB) OKEx The Africa Cryptour series of talks in Kenya will take place on September 21 in Nairobi.ADA/Cardano:Cardano (ADA) Cardano Ambassador Marin Kramaric will host the Ada community gathering in Croatia on September 21.ZIL/Zilliqa:The Zilliqa (ZIL) Zilliqa project representative will attend the “Bitcoin and Blockchain Future” conference in London, UK on September 21st.
Encrypted project calendar（September 22, 2019）
NPXS/Pundi X:Pundi X (NPXS) PundiX Labs will officially launch the XPOS transaction at the “AkiColle” event in Tokyo on September 22.
Encrypted project calendar（September 23, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:Bakkt, the digital asset platform led by ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange and the world’s second largest trading group, will launch a bitcoin physical delivery futures contract on September 23.EOS/EOS:EOS main network is expected to upgrade version 1.8 on September 23DCDecred:Project leader Jake Yocom-Piatt of Decred (DCR) Decrex will attend the Encryption Community Party in San Francisco on September 23 and will deliver a speech.
Encrypted project calendar（September 24, 2019）
ENG/Enigma:Enigma (ENG) ENG main network token snapshot will end on September 24, the original start time is August 26.LINA (LINA):Lina Review will host the Lina network launch event in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam on September 24th and release a 10-year operational strategy.Cappasity (CAPP):Cappasity will showcase its digital signage solutions in luxury stores at the Paris Retail Week from September 24th to 26th.
Encrypted project calendar（September 25, 2019）
MIOTA/IOTA:IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on September 25th at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles on the theme of “Building Your Own IoT.”Quant (QNT):The Quant project will participate in a marketing conference in London from September 25th to 26th, which will focus on data technology.
Encrypted project calendar（September 26, 2019）
ADA/Cardano:The Cardano (ADA) Cardano community will host a party in Washington, DC on September 26.
Encrypted project calendar（September 27, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:Cripto Latin Fest will be held in Cordoba, Argentina from September 27th to 29th.Switcheo (SWTH):After a one-year token exchange process, the project team will officially end the SWH→SWTH token exchange process on September 27.
Encrypted project calendar（September 28, 2019）
ADA/Cardano:Cardano (ADA) Cardano (ADA) 2nd Anniversary, Cardinal Foundation, IOHK and EMURGO main members will participate in community celebrations in Plovdiv, Bulgaria on September 28.TOP Network (TOP):The TOP Network team will hold a hackathon in Prague, Czech Republic from September 28th to 29th.Horizen (ZEN):Horizen project BD Rep Vano Narimandize will discuss the current status and development of sidechain technology at the Industry 4.0 Blockchain Summit on September 28.
Encrypted project calendar（September 29, 2019）
GAME/GameCredits:GameCredits (GAME) is expected to perform hard forks on September 29th at block height 2519999
Encrypted project calendar（September 30, 2019）
INS/Insolar:Insolar (INS) will be on September 30thERD/Elrond:Elrond (ERD) will conduct main network test on September 30thNULS/NULS:The NULS team will plan to beta the ChainBOX in the third quarter.CS/Credits:Credits (CS) will exchange tokens and bug rewards in the third quarterQTUM/Qtum:Quantum Chain (QTUM) is expected to complete lightning network beta in the third quarterXEM/NEM:New World Bank (XEM) will release mobile wallet and computer wallet in the third quarterHC/HyperCash: hypercash (HC) will complete community management agreement in the third quarter
Encrypted project calendar（October 01, 2019）
HT/Huobi Token:The financial base public link jointly created by Firecoin and Nervos is expected to be open source in October.RVN/Ravencoin:Ravencoin (RVN) Ravencoin will perform a hard fork on October 1.ADA/Cardano:Cardano (ADA) plans to hold technical consensus meeting in Amsterdam on October 1stXRC/Bitcoin Rhodium:Bitcoin Rhodium (XRC) will record account balance awards on October 1stPPC/Peercoin:Peercoin (PPC) will perform Peercoin v0.8 (code tang lang) hard fork on October 1st
Encrypted project calendar（October 02, 2019）
BNB/Binance Coin:The 2019 DELTA Summit will be held in Malta from October 2nd to 4th. The DELTA Summit is Malta’s official blockchain and digital innovation campaign.CAPP/Cappasity:The Cappasity (CAPP) London Science and Technology Festival will be held from October 2nd to 3rd, when the Cappasity project will be attended by the Science and Technology Festival.
Encrypted project calendar（October 03, 2019）
ETC/Ethereum Classic:The 2019 Ether Classic (ETC) Summit will be held in Vancouver on October 3–4
Hello all, To make a long story short, my macroeconomics professor asked me specifically to do a presentation BTC and try to convince him it's a good investment. My experience with Bitcoin has been limited to buying small amounts from LocalBitcoins or an ATM and storing them in a wallet and using them to buy some goods. In the first part of my presentation I go over bitcoin's origin, the differences between btc and fiat, as well as a very basic description of the blockchain and mining (because I myself find it difficult to understand). Anyway, I'm planning on typing up the rest of presentation after work today and I really want to focus on the economics behind bitcoin, particularly what makes it a good investment (other than when it hit 20k a few years ago and how you are protected from government seizure of your funds). Does anyone have any good links or articles (or even would be willing to explain?). Keep in mind this is 100 level economics class so it doesn't have to be extremely specific or highly detailed. I really appreciate the help guys.
The Creeps of Creeptocurrency - a public information guide (updated)
The Faces of Bitcoin - An Information Guide for the Public Reddit CEO Yishan Wong once said: ‘"Without being too inflammatory, the user base for bitcoin is basically crazy libertarians who are increasingly poorly informed about currency systems and macroeconomics.’ So let’s list the buttiness of the public faces of Bitcoin for all the people new to crypto. The public should know who and what they are dealing with. Please expand the list and distribute widely Part One Satoshi Nakamoto - the economically illiterate founder of Bitcoin. Having cobbled together various older ideas (he did NOT invent blockchain) he acted like he had created something new and foolishly released it to the public in a beta state that could not be easily retracted or upgraded. He was so embarrassed by his creation that he didn’t want to reveal his identity. The price of decentralisation is nobody gives a shit about your leadership and you can’t be a real project manager. Whenever he was losing control of Bitcoin he would freak out and ask developers to stop trying to innovate or tamper with his project. Eventually he was so frustrated by decentralisation that he abandoned his project. Erik Voorhees - is co-founder of the bitcoin company Coinapult, worked as Director of Marketing at BitInstant, and was founder and partial owner of the bitcoin gambling website Satoshi Dice. He was fined by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for an unregistered stock offering related to SatoshiDice. Charlie Shrem - co-founded the now-defunct startup company BitInstant, and is a founding member of the Bitcoin Foundation, formerly serving as vice chairman. In 2017, he joined Jaxx as its director of business and community development. In December 2014 he was sentenced to two years in prison for aiding and abetting the operation of an unlicensed money-transmitting business related to the Silk Road marketplace. He was released from prison around June 2016. Giancarlo Devasini - was previously fined for running a software counterfeiting business selling pirate Microsoft warez before becoming chief bean counter and Tether manager at Bitfinex. The most recent article in the Italian media can be found below. It covers Tether and the exchange’s ‘banking’ issues: http://ilsole24ore.com/solemobile/main/art/notizie/2017-12-18/paradisi-fiscali-attacchi-hacker-e-blocchi-storia-bitfinex-regina-bitcoin-212359.shtml Max Keiser - is an American broadcaster and film maker. Though he is not a financial expert he hosts Keiser Report, a financial program broadcast on Russian twisted alternative facts state media channel RT that features heterodox economics theories. Keiser is the creator, co-founder, and former CEO of HSX Holdings/Hollywood Stock Exchange. This technology allows traders to exchange virtual securities, such as "MovieStocks" and "StarBonds", with convertible virtual currency, the "Hollywood Dollar". It exists in its own parallel reality separate from Hollywood’s own creative accounting practices.
I'm applying for a PhD in Economics - Thesis theme will be "Digital currency - Future impacts on economic development, monetary and fiscal policy"
Hi guys, Background: I have a BSc in Economics, an MSc in Economics, majored in Applied Policy Analysis (translates into Microeconomic Analysis). I have worked for 4 years in unrelated fields, mostly on financial software development. I want to go back to college and pursue my dream of having an Economics research career. PhD in Economics - Digital currency - Future impacts on economic development, monetary and fiscal policy: The main focus of my thesis will be the study of this new form of currency, decentralized and not subject to control by any entity, admiting Bitcoins will play a major role in transactions over the next decades. The thesis aims to study to impact of this new currency on the impossibility of governments to make use of monetary policy to influence the amount of currency in circulation as a way to fuel economic growth through lower interest rates (incentivating investment, consumption, borrowing and spending), taxation of Bitcoin tranactions, inflation control by Central Banks, impact of the anonimity of transactions and Bitcoin wallets, among other themes of interest. I consider the macroeconomic impact of Bitcoin transactions an extremely interesting theme, and also an innovative theme as Bitcoins' relevance in the monetary market is fairly recent, so it's a theme that's not subject to much research so far. Any suggestions for further themes to analyze related to the economic impact of Bitcoins in modern economies are more than welcome. Any and all articles you may suggest relevant to the study of Bitcoins, economic papers already written analyzing this subject, and all other related media that may help me with the development of my thesis are more than welcome. Thank you in advance for all the help provided. Cheers. So far, the most centralized website that summarized research done on this topic was found here. EDIT: I have very limited knowledge on how the whole Bitcoin system works. So far the best articles for a complete beginner I found explaining the mechanics of the sistem were this one and this one. I find them quite limited though and wish to gain an advanced level of understanding on the mechanics behind the Bitcoin system. If anyone could provide me with a few links from complete beginner level to advanced level on how the bitcoins system works, it would be greatly appreciated. EDIT 2: I am waiting for a reply from my MSc Macroeconomic Analysis teacher regarding the proposal of my thesis theme and my request for his guidance of this thesis. I will soon receive a reply to this e-mail and post the reaction of my teacher here. Hopefully we'll all be surprised and he will tell me to go ahead with this theme and that he will supervise it. EDIT3: My Macroeconomic Analysis teacher just replied he would take a look at my suggestion for a PhD thesis at night and give me an answer regarding his opinion on the subject and his availability to be my thesis supervisor. Only a few hours left until I know if I can blatantly challenge the Acamedia world of Macroeconomics with my thesis. EDIT4: The thesis theme was accepted under the broader scope of the analysis of currency substitution.
These 3 Macroeconomic Factors Are Driving Bitcoin Price Above $12,000
https://preview.redd.it/kijm25u8v4f31.png?width=740&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3d29d3287d3ee8e5b6c95fc2ddd0ed365bef5d2 These 3 Macroeconomic Factors Are Driving Bitcoin Price Above $12,000 GTE IO GTE IO Aug 7 · 2 min read Posted by Irene Loke August 7, 2019 Article by Cointelegraph: William Suberg Bitcoin (BTC) price has staged a remarkable rally in recent days, but the reasons behind it could mean higher prices stick around much longer. With BTC/USD now at $12,200, here are the main reasons the cryptocurrency industry considers lie behind Bitcoin’s latest surge higher. 1. Global stocks are tumbling As Cointelegraph continues to report, the ongoing impact of the United States-China trade war is increasingly considered a boon for Bitcoin. On Tuesday, as tensions continued, stocks around the world showed considerable strain. As serial investor Tim Draper noted, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell by 2.9% and 3.4% respectively. For the Dow, it was the worst trading day of the year. At the same time, Bitcoin gained 3.2%, the latest in a series of rebounds which ended several weeks of bearish sentiment. Just a week ago, BTC traded closer to $9,500. 2. Investors are waking up to Bitcoin as a hedge Current price performance is fuelling attitudes that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly useful as a hedging instrument. As cryptocurrency and blockchain lawyer Jake Chervinsky noted on Tuesday, this quality is an essential use case, with Bitcoin designed to reduce dependence on the centralized financial system. “Bitcoin is doing exactly what it’s designed for today,” he summarized. His comments were echoed on mainstream media, with the CEO of consultancy firm Agecroft Partners telling CNBC Bitcoin’s hedging properties will make it a firm favorite for funds in future. 3. Bitcoin profits from fiat currency blame games As part of the trade war, the U.S. this week described China as a currency manipulator. The accusation came after Beijing significantly changed its policy of supporting the yuan, allowing it to slide against the dollar. This in turn allowed China an unfair competitive advantage in global trade, treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin claimed. China retaliated by warning the U.S. was “deliberately destroying international order.” For the average investor, an alternative thus makes perfect sense, Hayman Capital Management founder Kyle Bass explained to mainstream media. “If you’re in Asia and China and you’re in a closed currency system, or if you’re in Hong Kong and you can’t seem to get a big conversion of Hong Kong dollars to U.S. dollars what are you going to buy?” he said in an interview with Yahoo! Tuesday. As Cointelegraph reported, Jeremy Allaire, CEO of crypto payments firm Circle, also thinks the situation is spurring on Chinese investors to interact more with the cryptocurrency market. “Humanity has now created a non-sovereign, highly secure mechanism to store value that can exist anywhere the internet exists,” he told CNBC Monday.
Is Jay Powell fueling Trump’s trade war? It’s probably not intentional, but by making clear he will cut interest rates to offset the economic costs of a trade war, the Fed chief may have emboldened the nation’s Trade Warrior in Chief. Trump announced Friday he was imposing a 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese goods. That led China on Monday to cut purchases of soybeans and push down the value of the yuan, which led Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin later Monday to declare China a currency manipulator. That sort of tit-for-tat retaliation is the very definition of a trade war. No surprise it caused markets to recoil. Morgan Stanley analysts said if the retaliation cycle continues, the economy will be in recession within nine months. But enter Powell, who made it clear last week he wants the expansion to continue, and he is willing to cut rates further to offset trade-related sluggishness. That could make it possible for the president to pursue his China-bashing agenda without having to pay the economic—and political—price. That said, Trump and Xi are playing chicken with an aging economic expansion, and the results are unpredictable. Macroeconomic policy is as much about psychology as it is about hard math, and the current situation provides plenty of cause for angst. “We did not enter this particular trade war with a plan on how to get out,” says Philip Levy, who was an economic advisor to George W. Bush. And so, the recession watch is back on. As a result, big tech stocks—particularly those dependent on China—took a beating. Apple fell more than 5%; chip maker Nvidia was down 6.5%, while IBM and Adobe were both down more than 4%. Bitcoin provided a haven for skittish investors, rising 14%. While you’re here, we would appreciate your confidential feedback on our products and platforms as we build the new Fortune. Join our Global Advisory Panel here. More news below. Alan Murray [email protected] @alansmurray * More Details Here
Crowdsourcing the sidebar update part 1: suggested reading/education
Here's our awesome list of books to read. If you think something is missing or out of place feel free to shoot a message to the modmail and we'll consider changing things. Beginner: total noob, no finance background Intermediate: has taken intro to finance, courses, been investing more than a year, knows the difference between equities and fixed income, etc Advanced: complex concepts, grad school level things, maths that have more than one symbol in them. e: I'll summarize here for future readers:
Beginner -Little book of common sense investing by John bogle -A Random walk down wall street by burton malkiel -The boglehead guide to investing by Larimore, Lindauer, LeBoeuf -Four Pillars of Investing by William Bernstein - beginner, general Intermediate -Intelligent Asset Allocator by William Bernstein - intermediate, asset allocation -A History of Interest Rates -The Myth of the Rational Market -How Markets Fail - Cassidy -Alchemy of finance -One up on wall street - peter lynch -Against the gods - Peter Bernstein -F Wall Street by Joe Ponzio Advanced -Hedge Fund Market Wizards -Manual of Ideas
-How to Read Financial Statements - Ittelson (Fundamental/Beginner) -How to Read a Financial Report - Tracey (Fundamental/beginner)
Intermediate -The intelligent investor by Ben Graham -Expectations Investing -What works on wall street by James O'Shaughnessey -Accounting for Value -Value Investing from Graham to Buffett and Beyond -Investment Banking - Rosenbaum -What's Behind the Numbers -It's Earnings that Count -Common stocks and uncommon profits - Philip Fisher -Contrarian Investment Stategies Advanced -Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation
Intermediate -Your Complete Guide to Factor Investing -Quantitative Strategies for Achieving Alpha -Quantitative Value -Quantitative Momentum -Derivatives Essentials - Gottesman
Beginner Any current intro to macro textbook. It's best to stick to a university level intro book here because most of those won't try to push any sort of agenda. Intermediate Read up on money and banking. The standard textbook is Fredric Miskin (again get the latest edition). I thought the book was dry as dust (sorry Rick!) but it does go through the basics. If you are a serious investor you need to inoculate yourself against all the fairy tales from Austrians/bitcoiners/gold bugs/FED-haters generally that are floating around on the internet. Another really great book is David Moss "Macroeconomics." It's a very concise book that he uses at Harvard b-school to give an overview to MBAs. It's actually more basic than a textbook like Blanchard, but it's so short and well-organized that it will give you the big picture AFTER you been immersed in the details. Ed Leamer's "Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories" cannot be recommended enough for investors. He is a serious econometrician, but here he emphasizes the importance of "Pictures, Words, and Numbers: In that order." The book is all about forecasting the business cycle and gets you thinking about wrestling with the data. His examples are mostly US based (a large fairly closed economy) so you'll need to keep that in mind when you consider small open economies (like say the Netherlands). Read Carlin and Soskice "Macroeonomics" - again the latest edition. So why another macro book? It doesn't hurt to look at things from a (slightly) different perspective. The explanation of the New Keynesian 3-equation model in the book is among the best. Go find the syllabus used at Oxford for their undergrad macro course to get some supplemental materials and essay topics. ADVANCED Read all the reports and releases that come from the main central banks (Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE). This is indispensable for being a macro investor. Don't rely only on the summarized, filtered version from the news. You want to get inside the head of Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda, and Carney and the rest of the people on the monetary policy committees. How are they interpreting the news, what mental and formal models are they using, where do they disagree? Modern central banking has moved toward policy transparency so investors need to be well-calibrated to what is being said and follow their lead in many cases. Get a book on economic indicators. There a few standard ones somewhat skewed to the US audience. Goldman Sachs at least in the past, puts out guides to macro releases. Don't worry if you can't get your hands on these, just go to the relevant government agency website and there will be more details than you could ever want. Of course, it will take experience to understand how markets react to the different macro announcements. Get up to speed on market-based indicators. These will tend to be the most up-to-date, forward looking indicators since they are based on traded financial instruments. An example is Fed funds futures from which you can extract the market's expectation of a rate change. There are lots of traded instruments that will give you insight into what the market thinks is going on for interest rates, inflation, etc. Options on equity indices will also give you information. If you need some background, get Hull's excellent introductory book on options. Read the article on money creation from the Bank of England. Resident mod (and I hear also a very good cook in real life) MasterCookSwag often provides this link in this sub when battling the above mentioned goldbugs, bit coiners and other loonies. You'll find that it is additive even after you've read Mishkin. Read the book "Economic Policy" by Bénassy-Quéré, Coeuré, Jacquet, and Pisani-Ferry. This book is written by a group of academics/policymakers and ties policymaking to economic theory. It's not very technical, but covers a lot of ground and is very applied. It will help you understand what people at central banks and finance ministries are thinking about. Finally, lest you think you know it all at this point, check out Uribe and Schmitt-Grohe's forthcoming book "Open Economy Macroeconomics," a draft manuscript of which is available for free here. The website also has lectures slides, computer code, and data so that you can really learn the material. Unfortunately, unless you are technically (i.e. mathematically) well-trained just reading the previous books in this list will not prepare you for this book since serious macro requires a lot more than curve-shifting. (Curve shifting is enough to be a very good investor, but if you want to know what the experts are talking about, you need to go beyond. But go in with your eyes open and read Romer's recent essay on the state of affairs.) If necessary (for example to understand the Uribe book), take a step back and learn some of the technical foundations. Read David Romer's "Advanced Macroeconomics" and work through the superb programming exercises at Tom Sargent and John Stachurski's online course at Quantitative Economics, which can be done in Python or Julia. If you need to take another step back, read Stachurski's recent book "A Primer in Econometric Theory" for a gentle introduction to probability and estimation.
Intermediate -Option Volatility & Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques, Sheldon Natenberg. Advanced Options, futures, and other derivatives by John C Hull
Tangentially related books
-The Big Short -Where are the customer's yachts -The richest man in Babylon -The smartest guys in the room(enron documentary- not a book) Intermediate -When Genius failed -Irrational Exuberance
The Faces of Bitcoin - A Information Guide for the Public
The Faces of Bitcoin - An Information Guide for the Public Reddit CEO Yishan Wong once said: ‘"Without being too inflammatory, the user base for bitcoin is basically crazy libertarians who are increasingly poorly informed about currency systems and macroeconomics.’ So let’s list the buttiness of the public faces of Bitcoin for all the people new to crypto. The public should know who and what they are dealing with. Please expand the list and distribute widely Part One Satoshi Nakamoto - the economically illiterate founder of Bitcoin. Having cobbled together various older ideas he acted like he had created something new and foolishly released it to the public in a beta state that could not be easily retracted or upgraded. He was so embarrassed by his creation that he didn’t want to reveal his identity. The price of decentralisation is nobody gives a shit about your leadership and you can’t be a real project manager. Whenever he was losing control of Bitcoin he would freak out and ask developers to stop trying to innovate or tamper with his project. Eventually he was so frustrated by decentralisation that he abandoned his project. Erik Voorhees - is co-founder of the bitcoin company Coinapult, worked as Director of Marketing at BitInstant, and was founder and partial owner of the bitcoin gambling website Satoshi Dice. He was fined by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for an unregistered stock offering related to SatoshiDice. Charlie Shrem - co-founded the now-defunct startup company BitInstant, and is a founding member of the Bitcoin Foundation, formerly serving as vice chairman. In 2017, he joined Jaxx as its director of business and community development. In December 2014 he was sentenced to two years in prison for aiding and abetting the operation of an unlicensed money-transmitting business related to the Silk Road marketplace. He was released from prison around June 2016. Giancarlo Devasini - was previously fined for running a software counterfeiting business selling pirate Microsoft warez before becoming chief bean counter and Tether manager at Bitfinex. The most recent article in the Italian media can be found below. It covers Tether and the exchange’s ‘banking’ issues: http://ilsole24ore.com/solemobile/main/art/notizie/2017-12-18/paradisi-fiscali-attacchi-hacker-e-blocchi-storia-bitfinex-regina-bitcoin-212359.shtml Max Keiser - is an American broadcaster and film maker. Though he is not a financial expert he hosts Keiser Report, a financial program broadcast on Russian twisted alternative facts state media channel RT that features heterodox economics theories. Keiser is the creator, co-founder, and former CEO of HSX Holdings/Hollywood Stock Exchange. This technology allows traders to exchange virtual securities, such as "MovieStocks" and "StarBonds", with convertible virtual currency, the "Hollywood Dollar". It exists in its own parallel reality separate from Hollywood’s own creative accounting practices.
This post outlines the rules of /Cindicator and provides answers to the most common questions. We'd like to ask the community to participate in FAQs suggestions (you can add your comments below). Also check sidebar for links to our Medium, Facebook, Twitter, Telegram etc. DISCLAIMER We can’t sell our tokens to U.S. and China citizens and residents: U.S. citizens or permanent residents of the US, or those who have a primary residence or domicile in the United States, including Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and any other possessions of the United States can not be holders of our tokens (CND). We also can’t sell our tokens to citizens and permanent residents of China. Rules for the app We at Cindicator also won’t tolerate scams or cheating. If you try to cheat using our application (for example - register multiple accounts and send the same forecasts) - we will have to ban you. Rules for this subreddit
No inappropriate behaviour. This includes, but is not limited to: personal attacks, threats of violence, slurs of any kind, posting people's private information.
We also kindly ask to discuss only those issues that are directly related to Cindicator and its concepts. Furthermore, we do not welcome FUD messages here. For violation of those rules you can be banned.
No misleading titles - please try to choose titles that reflect the content of the post.
No duplicated questions that are addressed in FAQ. If the current answer to the FAQ lacks details, use the comment function to ask more specific.
Price discussion, market talk, other cryptos, memes etc in weekly sticky only!
Be aware of scams – consider trustworthy ONLY announcements from our team members:
In case of any questions, please contact us at [email protected]. FAQ What is Cindicator? Cindicator is a fintech company that creates the social and technological infrastructure needed to make effective decisions under volatile conditions of the new economy. By combining a large number of diverse financial analysts and a set of machine-learning models into a single system, we are developing a Hybrid Intelligence infrastructure for the efficient management of investors' capital in traditional financial and crypto-markets. How does it work?
Cindicator creates questions on Crowd Intelligence platform - app.cindicator.com
Analysts make their prediction on the daily basis, answering a number of specific questions about price levels of different financial assets, macroeconomic indexes, events significantly influencing the market, future ICOs.
Right after the question closes (deadline), the artificial intelligence system synthesises accurate forecasts using machine learning algorithms based on the accumulated statistics predicted by forecasters. Machine learning models dynamically calculate various weights for each analyst, identify stable systematics in their errors and calculate corrections for the errors, eliminate noise, and generate final predictions and trading indicators.
What does Cindicator stand for? Crowd Indicator: we refer to the famous “Wisdom of the crowds” concept. In a nutshell: it means that group of people is more likely to provide right answer than an individual. Hence, crowd indicator - an indicator of collective intelligence. Are there any Cindicator products already completed? Yes, there are several products that already completed and ready to use. They include: Collective Intelligence platform - applications for Android, iOS, web platform, CindicatorBot - Analytical Indicators, Cryptometer (arbitrage) bot, Token Sale Review bot, other different products are in development. What is Crowd Intelligence platform? Crowd Intelligence platform is a platform that we launched in December 2015 and where over 115,000 of analysts generate various forecasts daily, answering a number of specific questions, for example: Shares of Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) fell 5.87% and closed at 30.81 USD on Thursday, September 6 a day after testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee. Will Twitter stock manage to recover and trade above 32.7 USD by September 27? The cryptocurrency Bitcoin settled at $6753.3 at 10:30 AM UTC at Bitfinex exchange on Sunday, September 23. What will be the maximum and the minimum price of BTC/USD from 12:01 AM UTC on Monday, September 24 until 11:59 PM UTC on Sunday, September 30? Apple Inc. (AAPL) is scheduled to reveal its Q4 earnings on Thursday, November 1 after the market close. In your opinion, will Apple Inc. report earnings per share (EPS) above current Wall Street consensus of $2.77? Bitcoin crypto market share settled at 54.46% at 07:30 AM UTC on Monday, October 15. In your opinion, will Bitcoin's market share climb above 57.2% (+5%) at any time before November 14? And much more - visit the app to check all questions! What is Cindicator Bot? If we were asked to describe the product in one sentence, we would say: Cindicator combines the data from our analysts’ forecasts, processes it through several layers of ML algorithms, and delivers notifications with indicators via Telegram bot. For now we’re offering Cindicator’s users 9 types of indicators, most of them tackling both crypto- and traditional financial markets analysis. You can find levels of access and description of indicators on website and in this post. We’ve been carrying out back and forward testing of the indicators for quite some time already - you can find this information here https://goo.gl/aYf6ph. What is Cryptometer bot? The Cryptometer Bot 2.0 measures prices across multiple exchanges to anticipate and detect early signs of cryptocurrency market volatility and provides you with real-time price movements on your selected crypto assets. It is helping traders find the right arbitrage opportunity and profit in everyday trading in a simple way. You can find more information about this bot on website and this post. What is Token Sale Review bot? Token Sale Review is an exclusive analytical product that helps you identify the token sales that are the most sustainable and the most promising in the long run. A stop list tracks scams and projects with excessive risks. Access to this product is strictly limited and by application only. You can find more information about this bot on website and this post. Bots guide:https://cindicator.com/Cindicator-bot-reg-manual.pdf Video guides:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLhGvusYMn3Hcq0WjlhJOTsxqIJcX3qG1e Levels of access Cindicator Bot Beginner - 5k CND Explorer - 30k CND Trader - 200k CND Expert - 700k CND Cryptometer bot - 1 million CND Token Sale Review bot Beginner - 8k CND/month Intermediate - 14k CND/month Advanced - 20k CND/month What is the problem Cindicator is solving? The main problem in current financial analytics is centralisation. This is because analysts cluster their forecasts and opinions in open access and these opinions impact upon the opinions of other analysts. Decentralization is one of the many necessary characteristics we are working on in the context of the wisdom of the crowd. Figuratively speaking, the suggestion of each unique person contains two types of information: useful signal and unique chaotic noise. Cindicator cuts through this centralization bias by aggregating opinion from a wide range of diverse forecasters from different countries with different professional backgrounds, with different personal experience. After we combine lots of such different suggestions, we have useful signal amplification, and noises mutually cancel each other as they are quite unique and random. When people don’t discuss the problem before making a suggestion they are unlikely to include alien biases into suggestions and keep the uniqueness of their subjectivity – their personal noise, so the sum of noises will go to zero and the signal becomes accurate. Why does Cindicator need the issuance of our own infrastructure tokens? The issuance of our own infrastructure tokens is conditioned by the need to create an internal economy in the ecosystem that will establish transparent and fair relations among all participants making up the system: forecasters/analysts, traders, financial investors, data scientists, and the Cindicator team. What the name of the token? Can I mine Cindicator tokens? The token is also called Cindicator (CND). Unlike proof-of-work blockchains such as Bitcoin, there is no mining in Cindicator. What are Cindicator tokens? Cindicator tokens are ERC-20 compatible tokens distributed on the Ethereum blockchain pursuant to a related ERC-20 smart contract (the “CND Tokens”). Why people from PRC and USA are not allowed to buy Cindicator tokens? Due to legal reasons we can’t sell our tokens to U.S. and China citizens and residents: U.S. citizens or permanent residents of the US, or those who have a primary residence or domicile in the United States, including Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and any other possessions of the United States can not be holders of our tokens (CND). We also can’t sell our tokens to citizens and permanent residents of China. If your indicators are so valuable, why wouldn’t you use them only for yourself for trading? The answer is that simple: we are a technological company and specialise in the Hybrid Intelligence technologies. We create infrastructure and products based on it, and those products, infrastructure and data they yield can be used by hedge-funds or other companies with financial expertise. This way it’s a mutually beneficial business. We don't want to try entering completely different field of the big finance. In other words, the same question can be addressed to the Bloomberg, for example. To be exactly accurate - we do use our indicators for our own good - but this is a very small part of Cindicator business model. Which products can I access as a Token holder? By buying tokens, CND token holders will get exclusive access to part of the Hybrid Intelligence infrastructure being developed. Holders of CND infrastructure tokens will receive a different level of access to Cindicator’s indicators, ratings, and internal analytical products. Token holders will be able to access the following parts of the infrastructure: indicators of traditional markets and crypto-markets (the probability of the rise or fall of asset prices, the probability of beating consensus in corporate and macroeconomic events, indicators certain price levels being reached, indicators of the probability of significant events influencing the market); auxiliary service products for trading (Telegram bots, notifiers, and portfolio monitoring products); analytical products (ICO ratings, market condition analysis, ICO due diligence, and investor portfolio analysis); market indices and sentiments generated by Hybrid Intelligence (in development). Will your indicators still provide value if many people can gain access to them? The fact that token holders can use data from the analytical infrastructure products will not affect the value of the data received from Hybrid Intelligence, since each indicator or index is not an unambiguous trading signal, but only an additional metric in the market that helps analyse an investment decision. These data and analytical products will assist token holders and make the ecosystem transparent. A part of the infrastructure intended to be directly used in capital management (by traders' teams, machine-learning models, and trading strategies) will remain in the centralized part of the system. This is necessary in order to make sure that Hybrid Intelligence can be used most efficiently on the next stage, when interested funds will be provided with access to the entire infrastructure (for more detailed information, please, see White Paper Section 4.6). Cindicator - just another Prediction Market? Cindicator is not a prediction market. We are different in infrastructure, goals and business model: We enhance collective intelligence of our forecasters with Artificial Intelligence. Prediction markets usually just gather opinions. We aim at creating Hybrid intelligence - an effective combination of human mind and machine intelligence. Prediction markets aim at making correct predictions. We create products for financial markets: not only forecasts and signals, but also strategies, indices, sentiments, trading bots and tools, SaaS products. Thus our clients and source of income are financial markets’ players. Prediction markets focus on predictions - and for many of them analytics are important part of cash inflow. We on the other hand have never made or plan to make our forecasters risk their own money. You can read this article to know more about comparison of collective intelligence platforms. Is Cindicator just another trading signal provider? No, Cindicator is a technological ecosystem that also creates a number of products for traders and hedge funds. Cindicator’s ultimate goal is to set up a decentralized intellectual technology that effectively implements the potential of Hybrid Intelligence for the benefit of all participants of the ecosystem. In the future the technology strives to be fully automated: the only resource necessary for it to function will be the mental investment by the analysts. Is the crowd able to give reliable predictions? Usually we don’t expect crowd to be wise. However, crowd doesn’t necessarily mean chaotic and impulsive mass. In case of Cindicator, “the crowd” consists of independent financial analysts from all corners of the Earth. We could call it a consensus - yet the word we use refers to a well-known concept called “Wisdom of the crowds”. A famous example: in 1906, British scientist Francis Galton came to a rural fair where visitors were invited to guess the weight of a bull put on public display and to write this figure on a special ticket just for entertainment. Organizers of that show promised prizes for those who managed to guess a true figure. Thus, about 800 people - some of them professional farmers, others far from pastoral matters - took part in the voting. After collecting all the tickets for analysis after the fair, Galton calculated the average arithmetic value from the entire sample: 1197 pounds. The actual weight of the bull was 1198 pounds. Astonishing result, isn’t it? In order to make “Wisdom of the crowds” work, a few things must be secured: Analytics must look at the situation independently and provide answer privately - because otherwise they risk to become influenced by some opinion and produce biased results Group of people must be large. The more people - the more accurate their consensus is. Questions must be formulated in quantitative way. Watch a 5-mins video where BBC's professor Marcus du Sautoy explains how a group of people know more than one individual: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOucwX7Z1HU Have you acquired investments already? Cindicator has already acquired around $570,000 of investments from angels and venture funds. We also got $140,000 worth grants for technologies from Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon. During Cindicator Token Sale $15,000,000 hardcap has been reached. How experienced your team is? The Cindicator team has been created by a synergy of like-minded people with a variety of expertise in maths, data science and finances working together with one collective mind. About 85% of the team members are graduates of top STEM universities. We understand the value of building the right Team, Community, and Ecosystem. We are actively expanding the scientific community around our infrastructure, business and ecosystem giving access to our work and technologies so we can act together to solve important and relevant problems. Cindicator have a strong advisory board: Charlie Shrem - Chief Operating Officer at Jaxx.io, Founder of Bitcoin Foundation Anthony Diiorio - CEO and Founder at Decentral and Jaxx, Founder at Ethereum Markus Killick - CEO ISOLAS LLP law firm, Chairman Gibraltar Stock Exchange Evan Cheng - Director of Engineering at Facebook Reese Jones - Associate Founder at Singularity University Etienne Brunet - Investment Executive at Illuminate Financial Simone Giacomelli - Founder at Vulpem Stepan Gershuni - General partner at bits.capital Anton Govor - Managing Director, Head of Strategy at Moscow Exchange Andrei Rusakov - Partner, co-founder at Data Capital Management Julian Zegelman - Corporate Attorney, Partner at Velton, Zegelman PC Roman Storm - Blockchain and Solidity developer at blockchainlabs.nz Konstantin Gladych - CEO and Co-founder at Changelly.com instant cryptocurrency exchange Vivian Cheng - Associate at Cota Capital Boris Ryabov - Managing partner at Bright Capital
The intelligent investors guide to cryptocurrency: Part 5 - *Growth, Tribalism, Utility and Cryptocurrency:*
Introductions: I'm joskye. A cryptocurrency investor and particl holder. ...
Growth, Tribalism, Utility and Cryptocurrency: ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
You know the biggest benefit of decentralization is the introduction of automated, verifiable trustlessness into processes where a trusted 3rd party was previously required.
The whole point is that in removing the administrative need for a third party, you save time (via automated verification) and expense (to compensate the third party for their time). Perhaps a bigger idea, an expansion of this is that governance can be decentralized and the layers that exist between decision makers from decisions being made is narrowed. Yet it is funny that we are so tribalistic when it comes to the promotion of our and strategies and platforms that can achieve these aims.
One great irony of the cryptocurrency universe is that because the value of our speculative investments (our cryptocurrency tokens) is in so many ways dependent on adoption, we often think and conclude that this must come at the expense of success or growth in other projects including seemingly direct competitors in our space.
We often intrinsically feel or act or behave in a manner to suggest that cryptocurrency is a closed loop system; a narrow universe, a small box where there is no growth only shuffling of money from one asset to another. And yet a quick glance at the marketcap for all cryptocurrencies combined shows that this is not the case. That cryptocurrency market cap has grown considerably; I'd argue at an exponential rate.
For example, the price of Bitcoin and it's associated market cap has grown massively through 2016 and 2017 even though it's total share of crypto-market cap has fallen considerably.
The market cap of Bitcoin in January 2016 was $6.5 billion. As of July 2017 the market cap is $45 billion!
Meanwhile in this time the total market cap of all cryptocurrency has grown from $7 billion to $90 billion And to make this important the share of market cap of Bitcoin has fallen from 90% to 47%! ...
So what's the point of this?
It means there is money flowing into cryptocurrencies driving their speculative growth.
It means that crypto is not a closed box with a set number of participants changing hands.
It means that this is not a zero-sum game over a longer view stretching over months and years, so our strategies both trading and investing wise don't have to pretend to be in these time frames either.
It means that just because one cryptocurrency has grown massively in value over a short space of time, that the growth in surrounding cryptocurrencies does not have to eat into it's market cap or long term growth either.
It means that given Gold with a market cap of $7.6 trillion is worth 84 times more than the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies we know that cryptocurrency is both economically and technologically still a very young market!
It means that even if the dominance of one product or technology in a given field may come to an end, it does not mean that product cannot continue to enjoy considerable growth moving forward. Bitcoin rose 750% in 1.5 years even though it's overall market cap dominance almost halved!
Given that accessibility to cryptocurrencies is constantly improving and is the major bottleneck to new waves of investors and traders coming on board I would argue that we have a lot of growth still to come. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
And yet when I browse the dailies on ethtrader, bitcoinmarkets, btc, why do I see so many posters slagging off other crypto projects, even one's that may contribute or benefit the ecosystem of technologies they have holdings in?
Granted a lot of the times I see genuine criticism of projects or technologies that are highlighted, often genuine scams are brought to my attention and legitimate causes for concern in some tokens are raised with eloquently delivered and balanced arguments to defend the posters point of view.
Often though I simply see down vote brigades or nasty comments for posters who mention their tokens (likewise I often see people post their predictions of which tokens will pump without explaining why).
The worst instance though is when I see the board and development teams of other projects actively spread misinformation and promote and actively perpetuate a climate of mistrust or harbor an openly derogatory attitude towards other projects.
For example very recently I received an unsolicited direct message into my reddit account from a user I've had no previous communications with asking me to donate my Ether to a particular ICO whose project I won't name. Suffice to say I found it very insulting that this message and the articles it had linked to were saying derogatory and deliberately mis-informative things about projects that represent potential competitors in their field of product services.
Similarly I've read accusations that the teams actively devote resources to paying people to troll and discredit promoters of potential rival projects (that's just sad people) and top level representatives of large established cryptocurrencies openly speak lies or attempt to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt about projects they may see as rivals.
Unfortunately all these actions are in bad faith and speak to the poor integrity of these individuals and depending on their level of involvement may reflect poorly on their preferred project as well.
When I consider the amount of growth that has occurred in and been the dominant theme of cryptocurrency these last 4 years, I realize that this level of tribalism speaks to the small mindedness of others, to the intellectual laziness of others and to the total ignorance of the macro-economic factors and historic contexts that have taught us that with any paradigm shifting idea (in this case distributed ledger technology and it's role in furthering the decentralization of services) that there will be many winners and that it is the projects that bring utility and adoption to these ideas that will be the biggest winners.
Adopting a holistic, synergistic, utilitarian approach to cryptocurrencies in the end is what will lead to mass adoption, mass growth and genuine non-speculative use of distributed ledger technology which will benefit the majority of early adopters maximally.
Taking a maximalist approach or the idea that there can be only one distributed ledger technology or blockchain to rule them all is a fallacy. Believing that a given niche of applications (currency, smart contracts, marketplaces, DSN's etc) can only be occupied appropriately and adequately by only one product is the fallacy of maximalism. As we have seen historically for any given field of governance or technology, where money is to be made there is always at least 2 or 3 distinct competitors each occupying their own sub-niche and serving their own dedicated audience.
Tribalism is fine if it doesn't stop you thinking about the bigger picture or assessing it broadly. Tribalism can give you a sense of worth, a sense of belonging, community, accomplishment and standing the more respected and representative you are of the tribe you associate to. It should not however get in the way of an objective assessment or commentary of other tribes and the technologies, cultures and ideas they represent.
In the worst instance tribalism represents the self interested and preservative behavior of an individual to protect their own assets and tribe to the detriment of the ecosystem as a whole. I see that all too often in cryptocurrency and even though it is an understandable part of human nature, in investments I see it as a red flag when such attitudes and behaviors are directed by top level executives or marketing managers for specific products, industries or technologies.
To me such behavior reeks of insecurity when the criticisms relayed are done emotionally not rationally, when the critique lacks substance and is delivered in a manner designed to intentionally divide and denigrate. For such a young ecosystem as cryptocurrency, such behavior is short sighted. It demonstrates a complete lack of macroeconomic insight from these sorts of preachers. In reality cryptocurrencies can grow synergistically (i.e. together in a manner that is helpful towards each other) and they can grow both independently and interdependently of each other.
A look back at growth in detail confirms this. Now lets look at how encouraging utility can be both harmonious with tribalism and diversity whilst encouraging growth. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
We want the technologies we are invested in to be successful because we know if they are, their value will grow as will the value of our proportionate stake in this. To this end I encourage you to talk about your holdings. There is nothing wrong with being tribalistic about your own holdings as long as you are respectful, inquisitive, objective and appropriately critical of alternatives. I discuss various things to look for in my ongoing intelligent investors guide to cryptocurrency series but among them I value non-speculative utility highly.
I believe if your holdings bring non-speculative utility to this field and ideally encourages non-speculative fiat spending (i.e. people spending their dollars, pounds etc for services provided by blockchain technologies) then they will have the road map to long term success potentially laid out for them. Furthermore sometimes having several iterations of a technology type is actually beneficial to the technology itself and the ecosystem as a whole.
For example open fund asset management platforms such Melonport, Iconomi and TaaS should not be thought of as competing with each other. They should be thought of as three different projects with three different resource pools, three separate marketing budgets with three separate ways of promoting their product to the same global audience. If anything even though they provide the same end-point of service (index funds and managed portfolios for cryptocurrencies and tokenized assets) they are effectively acting as fail safes for each other; should one not succeed the competitors will have an opportunity to study why and adapt accordingly and hopefully for future success.
Conversely the success of one fund management platform will bring more fiat into the cryptocurrency ecosystem which will should then cause an average rise of the price of individual cryptocurrency tokens which means the value of other fund management platforms should also rise in value. Thus several iterations of the service can be beneficial to the ecosystem both in failure and success.
Another example is decentralized marketplaces. There are 3 major projects can come to mind; Particl (PART), Syscoin (Sys) and OpenBazaar. They all aim to bring utility to cryptocurrency by providing a means through which real world physical goods and services can be purchased and distributed solely through the use of cryptocurrency tokens. OpenBazaar currently accepts Bitcoin, Syscoin conducts it's transactions via it's native SYS token but also accepts Bitcoin (BTC) and Zcash (ZEC), whilst Particl will use integrated shapeshift to automatically convert all shapeshift compatible tokens (currently 67 as of writing) into the native PART token for transacting on the network.
As a speculator I have a preference towards Particl because I believe their use of integrated shapeshift to convert all cryptocurrencies via the shapeshift coin exchange network into PART prior to use will create organic buy pressure, absolute necessity and and intrinsic value for the Particl token whose value can logically be expected to increase provided organic demand for the use of it's proposed marketplace grows.
I also believe the inbuilt anonymity features of the PART token (CT, Ring CT enabling optional anonymisation of public transactions) and it's marketplace (availability of private listings which can only be accessed through knowledge of the private key, a trustless 3rd party free escrow system referred to as "MAD escrow") will provide additional incentives to transact specifically through the Particl network. I also believe that since PARTICL is verified through proof of stake with a percentage of transaction fee's going towards those verifying the Particl via staking will provide community driven incentives to promote the network which do not exist in OpenBazaar or exist as strongly in Syscoin (whose token appreciation correlation to increasing use effect I feel is diluted through the option to avoid transacting via the SYS token altogether).
That said OpenBazaar is already established and has a working decentralized marketplace where you can actively trade. Similarly Syscoin has already released it's public beta in 2016 and includes anonymity via zcash payments. In contrast Particl has yet to release their proposed platform in Beta and this is where the main point of criticism lays; that it won't be done. Acknowledging that Syscoin has a polished presentation, a history of development and is forming corporate partnerships (e.g. Microsoft Azure for deployment of the Syscoin API) and representation are strengths that bring legitimacy to the cryptocurrency ecosystem which will ease the minds of potential consumers both corporate and private.
I believe that marketplaces that accept multiple cryptocurrencies will bring utility and important, non-speculative intrinsic value to the cryptocurrencies they utilize. This non-speculative instrinsic value is essential and vital to the long term growth and acceptance of those supported cryptocurrencies.
Decentralized marketplaces (particularly those with anonymity) can further democratize trade and make the exchange of goods more accessible to people regardless of regional restrictions due to local governance. This is an additional benefit of such projects in the (still largely unexplored) cryptocurrency ecosystem which will help drive growth of the entire cryptocurrency market cap as a whole.
Systems like those in Particl and Syscoin can provide significant value to BTC, ZEC and a host of other cryptocurrencies indirectly and as such if you have any interest in seeing cryptocurrency as a whole succeed in replacing or sitting aside traditional fiat mechanisms you should be supportive of them.
Each decentralised marketplace will cater to different demographics of the global community, have different promotional strategies, different partnerships and ultimately different areas of reach and adoption. Their very existence and development is good for the cryptocurrency ecosystem and helps us to remain tribalistic (which is really a way of preserving mental focus) and supportive of the cryptocurrencies and token technologies we are interested in whilst giving them grounds to indirectly grow.
The third example I want to look at today is smart switch/contract platforms: The rapid success of Ethereum (ETH) has inspired the development of multiple other distributed ledgers aiming improve or solve problems identified in current solutions (namely speed, scalability and governance). Some of these technologies provide a unique approach to smart switch/contract execution or network verification e.g. IOTA, LISK, ANS and EoS whilst some aim to fix existing problems from the ground up e.g. NEM and TEZOS. Although the cynic in me is inclined to say that some of these projects represent cash grabs rather than genuinely intentioned attempts to improve on an existing product or idea, they ultimately bring greater attention to this space.
I suspect that although there will be one large player the the smart contract field and that although presently it appears to be Ethereum, this does not mean that several other systems will not find their audience, niche or adoption. To this end their is room for organic growth and adoption in these technologies; even though rabid fans and corporate/technical representatives of their platform will be inclined to say their platform is the best or the only one that matters, on a global outlook that will simply not be true; solutions will continue to evolve and the demographic, adoption and consumption patterns will continue to change leading to periodic shifts in dominance.
Perhaps more importantly each product will have different teams composed of different individuals; each individual will have their own composite psyche and thus their own unique approach to the same underlying common problems concerning product growth, development, promotion and adoption. These individuals will also have their own limitations and depending on the overall team skill set and the interpersonal factors that favor success will hopefully override the limitations on an individual level that can err towards failure. What is important though is that each team attracts people and provided the organization is there to utilize their skills and experience properly, then the product they work on will gain traction, advocacy and adoption with resultant growth and success. Ultimately it is these interpersonal factors and ability to understand and attract an audience that determine the success of a project in the long term. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Conclusions: Different products providing the same type of service can reach different demographics in different parts of the world and even if only one succeeds, it still means that access to the entire cryptocurrency market has been improved which means more money flowing in which means the price of assets you hold is likely to go up. Why? Because the increased number of new entrants means someone is more likely to buy something you hold.
And remember if one fails, the others can still succeed. Selective, intelligent diversification within a product type is a useful strategy to hedge for maximal gains whilst minimizing risks. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
1. Market capitalizations of all cryptocurrencies: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/ 2. Market capitalization of gold: http://onlygold.com/Info/All-The-Gold-In-The-World.asp 3. Open Bazaar (website): https://www.openbazaar.org/ 4. Syscoin (website): http://syscoin.org/ 5. Syscoin whitepaper: http://whitepaper.syscoin.org/ 6. Particl (website): https://particl.io/ 7. Particl whitepaper: https://github.com/particl/whitepapeblob/mastedecentralized-private-marketplace-draft-0.1.pdf
Full disclosure/Disclaimer: At time of original writing I had long positions in Ethereum (ETH), Particl (PART), ICONOMI (ICN), Augur (REP), Factom (FCT), Swarm City (SWT), Renos (RNS), Wetrust (TRST). All the opinions expressed are my own. I cannot guarantee gains; losses are sustainable; do your own financial research and make your decisions responsibly. All prices and values given are as of time of first writing (4th-May-2017).
Second disclaimer: Please do not buy Shadowcash (SDC), the project has been abandoned by it's developers who have moved on to the Particl Project (PART) (www.particl.io). The PARTICL crowd fund and SDC 1:1 token swap completed April 15th. You can still exchange SDC for PART but only if it was acquired prior to 15th April 2017 see: https://particl.news/a-community-driven-initiative-e26724100c3a for more information.
Addendum: Article updated 23-11-2017 to edit references to SDC (changed to Particl where relevant to reflect updated status) and clean up formatting.
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