Jeff Garzik Thinks Stable Currencies ... - Live Bitcoin News

The Great Bitcoin Bull Market Of 2017 by Trace Mayer

By: Trace Mayer, host of The Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast.
Originally posted here with images and Youtube videos.
I just got back from a two week vacation without Internet as I was scouring some archeological ruins. I hardly thought about Bitcoin at all because there were so many other interesting things and it would be there when I got back.
Jimmy Song suggested I do an article on the current state of Bitcoin. A great suggestion but he is really smart (he worked on Armory after all!) so I better be thorough and accurate!
Therefore, this article will be pretty lengthy and meticulous.
BACKGROUND
As I completely expected, the 2X movement from the New York Agreement that was supposed to happen during the middle of my vacation flopped on its face because Jeff Garzik was driving the clown car with passengers willfully inside like Coinbase, Blockchain.info, Bitgo and Xapo and there were here massive bugS and in the code and miners like Bitmain did not want to allocate $150-350m to get it over the difficulty adjustments.
I am very disappointed in their lack of integrity with putting their money where their mouths are; myself and many others wanted to sell a lot of B2X for BTC!
On 7 December 2015, with Bitcoin trading at US$388.40, I wrote The Rise of the Fourth Great Bitcoin Bubble. On 4 December 2016, with Bitcoin trading at US$762.97, I did this interview:

As of 26 November 2017, Bitcoin is trading around US$9,250.00. That is an increase of about 2,400% since I wrote the article prognosticating this fourth great Bitcoin bull market. I sure like being right, like usual (19 Dec 2011, 1 Jul 2013), especially when there are financial and economic consequences.
With such massive gains in such a short period of time the speculative question becomes: Buy, Hold or Sell?
FUNDAMENTALS
Bitcoin is the decentralized censorship-resistant Internet Protocol for transferring value over a communications channel.
The Bitcoin network can use traditional Internet infrastructure. However, it is even more resilient because it has custom infrastructure including, thanks to Bitcoin Core developer Matt Corrallo, the FIBRE network and, thanks to Blockstream, satellites which reduce the cost of running a full-node anywhere in the world to essentially nothing in terms of money or privacy. Transactions can be cheaply broadcast via SMS messages.
SECURITY
The Bitcoin network has a difficulty of 1,347,001,430,559 which suggests about 9,642,211 TH/s of custom ASIC hardware deployed.
At a retail price of approximately US$105/THs that implies about $650m of custom ASIC hardware deployed (35% discount applied).
This custom hardware consumes approximately 30 TWh per year. That could power about 2.8m US households or the entire country of Morocco which has a population of 33.85m.
This Bitcoin mining generates approximately 12.5 bitcoins every 10 minutes or approximately 1,800 per day worth approximately US$16,650,000.
Bitcoin currently has a market capitalization greater than $150B which puts it solidly in the top-30 of M1 money stock countries and a 200 day moving average of about $65B which is increasing about $500m per day.
Average daily volumes for Bitcoin is around US$5B. That means multi-million dollar positions can be moved into and out of very easily with minimal slippage.
When my friend Andreas Antonopolous was unable to give his talk at a CRYPSA event I was invited to fill in and delivered this presentation, impromptu, on the Seven Network Effects of Bitcoin.
These seven network effects of Bitcoin are (1) Speculation, (2) Merchants, (3) Consumers, (4) Security [miners], (5) Developers, (6) Financialization and (7) Settlement Currency are all taking root at the same time and in an incredibly intertwined way.
With only the first network effect starting to take significant root; Bitcoin is no longer a little experiment of magic Internet money anymore. Bitcoin is monster growing at a tremendous rate!!

SPECULATION
For the Bitcoin price to remain at $9,250 it requires approximately US$16,650,000 per day of capital inflow from new hodlers.
Bitcoin is both a Giffen good and a Veblen good.
A Giffen good is a product that people consume more of as the price rises and vice versa — seemingly in violation of basic laws of demand in microeconomics such as with substitute goods and the income effect.
Veblen goods are types of luxury goods for which the quantity demanded increases as the price increases in an apparent contradiction of the law of demand.
There are approximately 16.5m bitcoins of which ~4m are lost, ~4-6m are in deep cold storage, ~4m are in cold storage and ~2-4m are salable.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-1.jpg)
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-2.jpg)
And forks like BCash (BCH) should not be scary but instead be looked upon as an opportunity to take more territory on the Bitcoin blockchain by trading the forks for real bitcoins which dries up more salable supply by moving it, likely, into deep cold storage.
According to Wikipedia, there are approximately 15.4m millionaires in the United States and about 12m HNWIs ($30m+ net worth) in the world. In other words, if every HNWI in the world wanted to own an entire bitcoin as a 'risk-free asset' that cannot be confiscated, seized or have the balance other wise altered then they could not.
For wise portfolio management, these HNWIs should have at least about 2-5% in gold and 0.5-1% in bitcoin.
Why? Perhaps some of the 60+ Saudis with 1,700 frozen bank accounts and about $800B of assets being targetted might be able to explain it to you.
In other words, everyone loves to chase the rabbit and once they catch it then know that it will not get away.
RETAIL
There are approximately 150+ significant Bitcoin exchanges worldwide. Kraken, according to the CEO, was adding about 6,000 new funded accounts per day in July 2017.
Supposedly, Coinbase is currently adding about 75,000 new accounts per day. Based on some trade secret analytics I have access to; I would estimate Coinbase is adding approximately 17,500 new accounts per day that purchase at least US$100 of Bitcoin.
If we assume Coinbase accounts for 8% of new global Bitcoin users who purchase at least $100 of bitcoins (just pulled out of thin error and likely very conservative as the actual number is perhaps around 2%) then that is approximately $21,875,000 of new capital coming into Bitcoin every single day just from retail demand from 218,750 total new accounts.
What I have found is that most new users start off buying US$100-500 and then after 3-4 months months they ramp up their capital allocation to $5,000+ if they have the funds available.
After all, it takes some time and practical experience to learn how to safely secure one's private keys.
To do so, I highly recommend Bitcoin Core (network consensus and full validation of the blockchain), Armory (private key management), Glacier Protocol (operational procedures) and a Puri.sm laptop (secure non-specialized hardware).
WALL STREET
There has been no solution for large financial fiduciaries to invest in Bitcoin. This changed November 2017.
LedgerX, whose CEO I interviewed 23 March 2013, began trading as a CFTC regulated Swap Execution Facility and Derivatives Clearing Organization.
The CME Group announced they will begin trading in Q4 2017 Bitcoin futures.
The CBOE announced they will begin trading Bitcoin futures soon.
By analogy, these institutional products are like connecting a major metropolis's water system (US$90.4T and US$2 quadrillion) via a nanoscopic shunt to a tiny blueberry ($150B) that is infinitely expandable.
This price discovery could be the most wild thing anyone has ever experienced in financial markets.
THE GREAT CREDIT CONTRACTION
The same week Bitcoin was released I published my book The Great Credit Contraction and asserted it had now begun and capital would burrow down the liquidity pyramid into safer and more liquid assets.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/Great-Credit-Contraction-Liquidity-Pyramid.jpg)
Thus, the critical question becomes: Is Bitcoin a possible solution to the Great Credit Contraction by becoming the safest and most liquid asset?
BITCOIN'S RISK PROFILE
At all times and in all circumstances gold remains money but, of course, there is always exchange rate risk due to price ratios constantly fluctuating. If the metal is held with a third-party in allocated-allocated storage (safest possible) then there is performance risk (Morgan Stanley gold storage lawsuit).
But, if properly held then, there should be no counter-party risk which requires the financial ability of a third-party to perform like with a bank account deposit. And, since gold exists at a single point in space and time therefore it is subject to confiscation or seizure risk.
Bitcoin is a completely new asset type. As such, the storage container is nearly empty with only $150B.
And every Bitcoin transaction effectively melts down every BTC and recasts it; thus ensuring with 100% accuracy the quantity and quality of the bitcoins. If the transaction is not on the blockchain then it did not happen. This is the strictest regulation possible; by math and cryptography!
This new immutable asset, if properly secured, is subject only to exchange rate risk. There does exist the possibility that a software bug may exist that could shut down the network, like what has happened with Ethereum, but the probability is almost nil and getting lower everyday it does not happen.
Thus, Bitcoin arguably has a lower risk profile than even gold and is the only blockchain to achieve security, scalability and liquidity.
To remain decentralized, censorship-resistant and immutable requires scalability so as many users as possible can run full-nodes.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/ethereum-bitcoin-scability-nov-2017.png)
TRANSACTIONS
Some people, probably mostly those shilling alt-coins, think Bitcoin has a scalability problem that is so serious it requires a crude hard fork to solve.
On the other side of the debate, the Internet protocol and blockchain geniuses assert the scalability issues can, like other Internet Protocols have done, be solved in different layers which are now possible because of Segregated Witness which was activated in August 2017.
Whose code do you want to run: the JV benchwarmers or the championship Chicago Bulls?
As transaction fees rise, certain use cases of the Bitcoin blockchain are priced out of the market. And as the fees fall then they are economical again.
Additionally, as transaction fees rise, certain UTXOs are no longer economically usable thus destroying part of the money supply until fees decline and UTXOs become economical to move.
There are approximately 275,000-350,000 transactions per day with transaction fees currently about $2m/day and the 200 DMA is around $1.08m/day.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-transaction-fees-nov-2017.png)
What I like about transaction fees is that they somewhat reveal the financial health of the network.
The security of the Bitcoin network results from the miners creating solutions to proof of work problems in the Bitcoin protocol and being rewarded from the (1) coinbase reward which is a form of inflation and (2) transaction fees which is a form of usage fee.
The higher the transaction fees then the greater implied value the Bitcoin network provides because users are willing to pay more for it.
I am highly skeptical of blockchains which have very low transaction fees. By Internet bubble analogy, Pets.com may have millions of page views but I am more interested in EBITDA.
DEVELOPERS
Bitcoin and blockchain programming is not an easy skill to acquire and master. Most developers who have the skill are also financially independent now and can work on whatever they want.
The best of the best work through the Bitcoin Core process. After all, if you are a world class mountain climber then you do not hang out in the MacDonalds play pen but instead climb Mount Everest because that is where the challenge is.
However, there are many talented developers who work in other areas besides the protocol. Wallet maintainers, exchange operators, payment processors, etc. all need competent developers to help build their businesses.
Consequently, there is a huge shortage of competent developers. This is probably the largest single scalability constraint for the ecosystem.
Nevertheless, the Bitcoin ecosystem is healthier than ever before.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-ecosystem.jpg)(/images/bitcoin-ecosystem-small.jpg)
SETTLEMENT CURRENCY
There are no significant global reserve settlement currency use cases for Bitcoin yet.
Perhaps the closest is Blockstream's Strong Federations via Liquid.
PRICE
There is a tremendous amount of disagreement in the marketplace about the value proposition of Bitcoin. Price discovery for this asset will be intense and likely take many cycles of which this is the fourth.
Since the supply is known the exchange rate of Bitcoins is composed of (1) transactional demand and (2) speculative demand.
Interestingly, the price elasticity of demand for the transactional demand component is irrelevant to the price. This makes for very interesting dynamics!
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-speculation.jpg)
On 4 May 2017, Lightspeed Venture Partners partner Jeremy Liew who was among the early Facebook investors and the first Snapchat investor laid out their case for bitcoin exploding to $500,000 by 2030.
On 2 November 2017, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/blankfein-says-don-t-dismiss-bitcoin-while-still-pondering-value)said, "Now we have paper that is just backed by fiat...Maybe in the new world, something gets backed by consensus."
On 12 Sep 2017, JP Morgan CEO called Bitcoin a 'fraud' but conceded that "(http://fortune.com/2017/09/12/jamie-dimon-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-fraud-buy/)Bitcoin could reach $100,000".
Thus, it is no surprise that the Bitcoin chart looks like a ferret on meth when there are such widely varying opinions on its value proposition.
I have been around this space for a long time. In my opinion, those who scoffed at the thought of $1 BTC, $10 BTC (Professor Bitcorn!), $100 BTC, $1,000 BTC are scoffing at $10,000 BTC and will scoff at $100,000 BTC, $1,000,000 BTC and even $10,000,000 BTC.
Interestingly, the people who understand it the best seem to think its financial dominance is destiny.
Meanwhile, those who understand it the least make emotionally charged, intellectually incoherent bearish arguments. A tremendous example of worldwide cognitive dissonance with regards to sound money, technology and the role or power of the State.
Consequently, I like looking at the 200 day moving average to filter out the daily noise and see the long-term trend.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-200dma-nov-2017.png)
Well, that chart of the long-term trend is pretty obvious and hard to dispute. Bitcoin is in a massive secular bull market.
The 200 day moving average is around $4,001 and rising about $30 per day.
So, what do some proforma situations look like where Bitcoin may be undervalued, average valued and overvalued? No, these are not prognostications.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-pro-forma.png)
Maybe Jamie Dimon is not so off his rocker after all with a $100,000 price prediction.
We are in a very unique period of human history where the collective globe is rethinking what money is and Bitcoin is in the ring battling for complete domination. Is or will it be fit for purpose?
As I have said many times before, if Bitcoin is fit for this purpose then this is the largest wealth transfer in the history of the world.
CONCLUSION
Well, this has been a brief analysis of where I think Bitcoin is at the end of November 2017.
The seven network effects are taking root extremely fast and exponentially reinforcing each other. The technological dominance of Bitcoin is unrivaled.
The world is rethinking what money is. Even CEOs of the largest banks and partners of the largest VC funds are honing in on Bitcoin's beacon.
While no one has a crystal ball; when I look in mine I see Bitcoin's future being very bright.
Currently, almost everyone who has bought Bitcoin and hodled is sitting on unrealized gains as measured in fiat currency. That is, after all, what uncharted territory with daily all-time highs do!
But perhaps there is a larger lesson to be learned here.
Riches are getting increasingly slippery because no one has a reliable defined tool to measure them with. Times like these require incredible amounts of humility and intelligence guided by macro instincts.
Perhaps everyone should start keeping books in three numéraires: USD, gold and Bitcoin.
Both gold and Bitcoin have never been worth nothing. But USD is a fiat currency and there are thousands of those in the fiat currency graveyard. How low can the world reserve currency go?
After all, what is the risk-free asset? And, whatever it is, in The Great Credit Contraction you want it!
What do you think? Disagree with some of my arguments or assertions? Please, eviscerate them on Twitter or in the comments!
submitted by bitcoinknowledge to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

After 8 long years... adding a measly 1MB increase to the blocksize along with segwit is so unpalatable to Theymos, Bashco and his henchmen that they are organizing more media trolling campaigns out of the dragons den to do everything they can to encourage a forced soft fork rather than compromise

These trolling campaigns are getting so out of hand that the most important piece of news today which affects all crypto owners isn't even on the front page. How the US government is trying to make everyone declare all of their crypto assets whenever they cross a border...which will simply violate our rights and achieve NOTHING.
And then.. there are the layer 2 solutions we were promised. 9 years later and nothing. There is no layer 2 solution in sight. RSK is the closest thing and a recent post quoted one of the developers involved as saying that it was still 5 months away from going live. This as we are in (or were) a major bull phase of growth that should have increased more users. But it is clear that if we increase users much past where we are now that the network will be handicapped. The data shows that transaction fees have risen so fast and so high that many wallets would become unspendable and the network largely unusable if it increases much further. That puts a cap on whatever height bitcoin can achieve and it gives other cryptos the chance to grow instead. Look up a chart showing the size of blocks and transaction backlogs relative to the dominance (market cap) of bitcoin to see that interesting bit of data.
The funny thing is... if Gmax and others were simply conspiring to give us a layer 2 solution and purposefully handicapping the network.... I wouldn't even be that mad if they actually delivered on it. But they haven't.
As the great Jeff Garzik said in a recent twitter post:
Lightning is not field-proven. It is irresponsible and risky to predicate Bitcoin growth on L2 solutions not yet deployed and field proven.
submitted by specialenmity to btc [link] [comments]

If you are so sure that "S2X has >90% hash power and will obliterate the S1X chain", there is a futures market, where you can "bet" on the outcome and make a lot of money, IF you are right.

"At the time of writing, BT1 tokens were trading at $3,250, while BT2 were priced at $1,104" Source: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitfinex-lists-segwit2x-chain-split-tokens/
Since I started posting on this forum, I have been told time and again, that "S2X has >90% hash power and will obliterate the S1X chain". I totally disagree. Miners can signal all they want, but in the end, they will mine the chain, that WE give value to.
In my view, the Core development team have done a wonderful job, by adding complicated code, SegWit, which simply works, without any BUGs.
SegWit IS a scaling solution that works. It leads to lower fees, & faster confirmations, as The Segwit blocks which include the witness data can be over 1,000,000 bytes.
SegWit Charts Transaction percentage hits 9%: http://segwit.party/charts/
Unconfirmed Transactions (MEM Pool) are really low, at around 10,000. All this year, before SegWit got activated, Unconfirmed Transactions, were sitting around 150,000. Source: https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions
Shapeshift IS Now One of the Leading SegWit Adopters! Shapeshift is responsible for 2% to 3% of ALL Bitcoin transactions.
This is why, I support the incumbent Bitcoin BTC, & will continue to do so after the hard fork.
I personally do not believe that Segwit2x developer Jeff Garzik will be able to as good a job as the current Core development team.
A simple error in the code, or a bug, could lead to BIG problems down the line.
As an example of this, see how big a a negative impact the EDA bug is having on Bitcoin Cash. I have stopped advocating for Bitcoin Cash since I saw this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWG513bfNlE
Are YOU sure that "S2X has >90% hash power and will obliterate the S1X chain"? Are you really, really sure??
Please note, IF you hold Bitcoin (BTC) you should get free coins when Bitcoin Gold Hard Forks on 25th October. Then you will also get SegWit2X coins, when this Hard Fork happens in mid November. Coinbase has said that "Customers with Bitcoin balances stored on Coinbase at the time of the fork, will have access to Bitcoin on both blockchains.
On a side note: All of us who support current version of Bitcoin BTC, have to help find ways of keeping Core developers in control.
Please note: This is an educational post. Betting on futures market is highly risky, & not recommended.
This is not financial advice. I am an amateur investor. This post is based on my current knowledge, which is limited.
submitted by BTCBCCBCH to btc [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Market Dominance Goes OVER 50%

Bitcoin (BTC) was the top performing cryptocurrency during the third quarter of 2017. It is once again going towards all time highs.
Bitcoin Market Dominance Goes OVER 50% FINALLY - Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/
I think that more people will move from Alt Coins to Bitcoin, now that we have a decent scaling solution, SegWit, & the market is no longer scared of Hard Forks. Businesses can also start creating solutions to take payments off main chain, thereby scaling Bitcoin further.
I predict that Bitcoin price could quickly surpass the $5,000 mark if support towards SegWit2x declines further. This is a guess on my part! I also believe that Alt Coins may have a rebound post both forks, at the end of this year. What do you think?
The markets (people who own Bitcoins) are confident now that the current Bitcoin BTC will survive after the hard fork. In the futures market, REAL MONEY seems to be betting on a win for the incumbent BTC Bitcoin (1X).
Coinbase has now announced that they will support both chains. Source: https://blog.coinbase.com/update-on-the-bitcoin-segwit2x-hard-fork-69426f14bc85
SegWit has been the most important scaling solution for Bitcoin in many years, & is bullish for the price. It has already led to lower fees, & faster confirmations, for many Bitcoin BTC users. Segwit almost hit 10%: http://segwit.party/charts/
Just a couple of days ago, Shapeshift, which accounts for almost 3% of all Bitcoin transactions, announced that they will adopt SegWit, and confirmed that it does indeed enable scaling and lead to lower fees. Source: https://info.shapeshift.io/blog/2017/10/05/shapeshift-now-one-leading-segwit-adopters
Unconfirmed Transactions (MEM Pool) are really low, at around 10,000. All this year, before SegWit got activated, Unconfirmed Transactions, were sitting around 150,000. Source: https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions
Bitcoin holders are looking forward to getting their free "dividend" coins - Bitcoin Gold (GPU) & Bitcoin2X (B2X). This is bullish for the incumbent Bitcoin BTC, in my view. I also think that we will have many more Hard Forks of Bitcoin in 2018, leading to further dividends.
I support the incumbent Bitcoin BTC, with the Core developers, & will continue to do so after the hard fork. I personally do not believe that Segwit2x developer Jeff Garzik will be able to do as good a job, as the current Core development team.
A simple error in the code, or a bug, could lead to BIG problems down the line.
As an example of this, see how big a a negative impact the EDA bug is having on Bitcoin Cash. I have stopped advocating for Bitcoin Cash since I saw this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWG513bfNlE
This is not financial advice. Instead it is an educational post, & is based on my current knowledge, which is limited. I could be wrong. I will edit & update as further information comes to light. Please carry out your own research
submitted by BTCBCCBCH to btc [link] [comments]

General info and list of exchanges for Metronome (MET)

Metronome About Features Owner's Manual Token Sale Wallet Team Media Kit FAQ Auction Metronome The Built-to-Last Cryptocurrency Self-Governance. Reliability. Portability. Buy Metronome How would you like to buy Metronome? 10See all download optionsor Buy With Your Own Wallet To make a purchase, send ETH to the address below. Make sure the address you use is that one. We recommend copying it or scanning the QR code.
Address 0x9d9BcDd249E439AAaB545F59a33812E39A8e3072
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Bloomberg Coindesk New York Times Reuters Metronome ("Metronome" or "MET") is a new cryptocurrency focused on making greater decentralization possible and delivering institutional-class endurance.
Metronome builds off the lessons learned from previous cryptocurrencies and optimizes for self-governance, long-term reliability, and maximum portability. Built by leading figures in the space and supported by a diverse array of partners and advisors, Metronome is engineered to meet and exceed the high standards of the cryptocurrency community. In developing an enduring cryptocurrency, Metronome is founded on three key design principles:
SELF-GOVERNANCE with no undue influence from founders after initial launch and public access — contract governance starts at launch.
RELIABILITY and predictability where issuance and supply are immutable
PORTABILITY to enable maximum decentralization, even across different blockchains
As the first cryptocurrency capable of being exported and imported across chains, Metronome will be initially issued on Ethereum with Ethereum Classic, Rootstock on Bitcoin, and Qtum support expected to follow. Such portability will allow users to select the chain that suits their requirements for management and security, or even upgrade the MET contract if needed. Metronome's main goal is to be a built to last cryptocurrency, and portability furthers this goal by freeing Metronome from the fate of any one chain.
Metronome will not be controlled by any party after launch—not even its authors—as it is completely autonomous. Metronome authors plan to continue to help by building an ongoing open-source community to support developers and users, but Metronome authors will have no access or control after the initial auction.
Receive the latest updates from Metronome: Email Address
Owners Manual Like with any other asset or technology, it's important for users to know how Metronome works—the Owner's Manual , along with the documents and information referenced therein, is required reading for any Metronome owner.
Token Sale Terms Metronome will be offered to the public via an autonomous descending price auction. Its authors will receive a one-time retention of 20% (2 million) of the initial MET supply. 100% of the proceeds from the initial auction will be used to provide long term support for the community. The initial supply auction will last up to 7 days. After 7 days or when all MET in the initial supply are sold, the auction will end.
Pie Chart Auction Proceeds Pie Chart Timeline
03.01.2017 Metronome idea 05.24.2017 Partnership with New Alchemy formed 08.01.2017 Smart contract development begins 10.24.2017 Metronome website and Owner's Manual published June 2018 Metronome Initial Supply Auction Q3 2018 First cross-chain launch on ETC Team A project as advanced and ambitious as Metronome requires known, proven talent and leadership in cryptocurrencies—people who uniquely understand the engineering and marketplace challenges.
Jeff Garzik Jeff Garzik CEO & Co-Founder / Chief Designer
Matthew Roszak Matthew Roszak Chairman & Co-Founder
Peter Vessenes Peter Vessenes Chief Cryptographer
Ryan Condron Ryan Condron Principal Engineer
Troy Benjegerdes Troy Benjegerdes Principal Engineer
Jordan Kruger Jordan Kruger Data Scientist
Gabriel Montes Gabriel Montes Engineering Lead
Pablo Enrici Pablo Enrici Software Engineer
Ignacio Anaya Ignacio Anaya Software Engineer
Jaclyn Kramer Jaclyn Kramer Marketing
Dariusz Jakubowski Dariusz Jakubowski Community Advocate
Steve Beauregard Steve Beauregard Partnerships
Ted Parvu Ted Parvu Infrastructure
Matt Lam Matt Lam Blockchain Strategist
Iwona Zdanowicz Iwona Zdanowicz Administrative
Advisors Gustav Simonsson Gustav Simonsson Orchid Labs Co-founder & Former Ethereum Core Dev
Jim Newsome Jim Newsome Delta Strategy & Former CFTC Chairman
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submitted by cryptoinvestor2020 to Metronomeio [link] [comments]

Why We Need to Ask Gavin Andresen for a 2-4-8 Proposal

Firstly, let’s not confuse this with a BIP let’s just say it’s a change in xt that needs to be implemented immediately, and ideally should be produced with Gavin’s Leadership. Many who have been supporting xt will be reluctant to listen to my reasoning, but please bear with me. I myself still prefer xt over the other versions but there is a reason it is flawed. We don’t have to think of this reason, necessarily, as a mistake in the code. Rather it is a practical reality (in the current forward prediction model form) The Chinese miners are never going to use it. So no matter how perfect xt code is in our imaginations it is not perfect in someone else’s and it is their imagination not ours that determines what code is discovering blocks. The Chinese miners do in fact support a 2-4-8 proposal. See this very informative link produced by jtoomim :
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Cg9Qo9Vl5PdJYD4EiHnIGMV3G48pWmcWI3NFoKKfIzU/edit#gid=0
As you can see the column titled 2-4-8 (Adam Back) is a combination of the best and most popular options.
There are many fallacies used to support the forward prediction model. By this I mean predictions of up to 8GB 20 years out. Before I get into those, let me please advise you, that this model of forward predictions is failed. We will have market prediction models that run dynamically in Code. In fact Jeff Garzik and Gavin Andresen referred to it here:
https://medium.com/@jgarzik/bitcoin-is-being-hot-wired-for-settlement-a5beb1df223a#.s0spzkr4j
Where they say:
“And finally, to remove long term moral hazard, core block size limit should be made dynamic, put in the realm of software, outside of human hands.”
These “dynamic” market prediction models are the future. They will be in place within 10 years. There is no reason to hold up xt over failed prediction models of the past that will never be used.
While trying to convince people I have come across many strange fallacies that are really rationalizations that stop them from considering that their view is totally wrong. Let me list those:
1) Small Block Fallacy: This occurs when we say the miners can make small blocks already. They don’t have to make big blocks if they don’t want to.
Yes the miners can make small blocks. Yes, that does not matter because they still have to download the big ones.
2) Greedy Miners Fallacy: This occurs when we say the miners are just trying to jack up fees by using small blocks.
No, they want bigger blocks. LOOK AT THE CHART. Their money is not maximized with tiny blocks that spike fees up for a short time until bitcoin is replaced.
3) Unreasonable Miners Fallacy: This occurs when we say they are being obstinate, don’t understand the code, and they will only run Core or something.
No, they are not being unreasonable, they have real data problems there behind the Great Fire Wall. See this link: https://toom.im/blocktime They are being conservative and totally reasonable. I can’t say that in every case, but it is not fair to say that they are not searching for a solution or will only run Core. They have said they will make their own code if Core cannot scale bitcoin.
4) Wrong Guesses (about future block sizes) are okay Fallacy: “A wrong guess is no worse than no guess at all.”
No they are not good they cost us everything and gain us nothing.
5) I am just going to sit here and not change my original proposal no matter what fallacy.
If gavinandresen won’t someone else will. That said we in the community would really appreciate your leadership on this. (Admittedly, I am asking people now to support this and hope they would)
Why this is so important. Core is marginalizing bitcoin by the day. We need to take the momentum away from them. The Core coders have a conflict of interest in their funding and this is causing them to make really bad decisions. We know all the reasons too well. Edit: no matter what I discover something that has to be changed after 3 minutes.
submitted by rberrtus to btc [link] [comments]

Dynamically Controlled Bitcoin Block Size Max Cap [BIP 1xx - Draft] | Upal Chakraborty | Aug 25 2015

Upal Chakraborty on Aug 25 2015:
Github: https://github.com/UpalChakraborty/bips/blob/masteBIP-DynamicMaxBlockSize.mediawiki
BIP: 1xx
Title: Dynamically Controlled Bitcoin Block Size Max Cap
Author: Upal Chakraborty <bitcoin at upalc.com>
Status: Draft
Type: Standards Track
Created: 2015-08-24
==Abstract==
This BIP proposes replacing the fixed one megabyte maximum block size
with a dynamically controlled maximum block size that may increase or
decrease with difficulty change depending on various network factors.
I have two proposals regarding this...
i. Depending only on previous block size calculation.
ii. Depending on previous block size calculation and previous Tx fee
collected by miners.
==Motivation==
With increased adoption, transaction volume on bitcoin network is
bound to grow. If the one megabyte max cap is not changed to a
flexible one which changes itself with changing network demand, then
adoption will hamper and bitcoin's growth may choke up. Following
graph shows the change in average block size since inception...
https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
==Specification==
===Proposal 1 : Depending only on previous block size calculation===
If more than 50% of block's size, found in the first 2000 of the
last difficulty period, is more than 90% MaxBlockSize
 Double MaxBlockSize 
Else if more than 90% of block's size, found in the first 2000 of
the last difficulty period, is less than 50% MaxBlockSize
 Half MaxBlockSize 
Else
 Keep the same MaxBlockSize 
===Proposal 2 : Depending on previous block size calculation and
previous Tx fee collected by miners===
TotalBlockSizeInLastButOneDifficulty = Sum of all Block size of
first 2008 blocks in last 2 difficulty period
TotalBlockSizeInLastDifficulty = Sum of all Block size of second
2008 blocks in last 2 difficulty period (This actually includes 8
blocks from last but one difficulty)
TotalTxFeeInLastButOneDifficulty = Sum of all Tx fees of first 2008
blocks in last 2 difficulty period
TotalTxFeeInLastDifficulty = Sum of all Tx fees of second 2008
blocks in last 2 difficulty period (This actually includes 8 blocks
from last but one difficulty)
If ( ( (Sum of first 4016 block size in last 2 difficulty
period)/4016 > 50% MaxBlockSize) AND (TotalTxFeeInLastDifficulty >
TotalTxFeeInLastButOneDifficulty) AND (TotalBlockSizeInLastDifficulty
TotalBlockSizeInLastButOneDifficulty) )
 MaxBlockSize = TotalBlockSizeInLastDifficulty * MaxBlockSize / 
TotalBlockSizeInLastButOneDifficulty
Else If ( ( (Sum of first 4016 block size in last 2 difficulty
period)/4016 < 50% MaxBlockSize) AND (TotalTxFeeInLastDifficulty <
TotalTxFeeInLastButOneDifficulty) AND (TotalBlockSizeInLastDifficulty
< TotalBlockSizeInLastButOneDifficulty) )
 MaxBlockSize = TotalBlockSizeInLastDifficulty * MaxBlockSize / 
TotalBlockSizeInLastButOneDifficulty
Else
 Keep the same MaxBlockSize 
==Rationale==
These two proposals have been derived after discussion on
[https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1154536.0 BitcoinTalk] and
[http://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2015-August/010285.html
bitcoin-dev mailing list]. The original idea and its evolution in the
light of various arguements can be found
[http://upalc.com/maxblocksize.php here].
===Proposal 1 : Depending only on previous block size calculation===
This solution is derived directly from the indication of the problem.
If transaction volume increases, then we will naturally see bigger
blocks. On the contrary, if there are not enough transaction volume,
but maximum block size is high, then only few blocks may sweep the
mempool. Hence, if block size is itself taken into consideration, then
maximum block size can most rationally be derived. Moreover, this
solution not only increases, but also decreases the maximum block
size, just like difficulty.
===Proposal 2 : Depending on previous block size calculation and
previous Tx fee collected by miners===
This solution takes care of stable mining subsidy. It will not
increase maximum block size, if Tx fee collection is not increasing
and thereby creating a Tx fee pressure on the market. On the other
hand, though the block size max cap is dynamically controlled, it is
very difficult to game by any party because the increase or decrease
of block size max cap will take place in the same ratio of average
block size increase or decrease.
==Compatibility==
This is a hard-forking change to the Bitcoin protocol; anybody running
code that fully validates blocks must upgrade before the activation
time or they will risk rejecting a chain containing
larger-than-one-megabyte blocks.
==Other solutions considered==
[http://gtf.org/garzik/bitcoin/BIP100-blocksizechangeproposal.pdf
Making Decentralized Economic Policy] - by Jeff Garzik
[https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1078521.0 Elastic block cap
with rollover penalties] - by Meni Rosenfeld
[https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/mastebip-0101.mediawiki
Increase maximum block size] - by Gavin Andresen
[https://gist.github.com/sipa/c65665fc360ca7a176a6 Block size
following technological growth] - by Pieter Wuille
[https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf The Bitcoin
Lightning Network: Scalable Off-Chain Instant Payments] - by Joseph
Poon & Thaddeus Dryja
==Deployment==
If consensus is achieved, deployment can be made at a future block
number at which difficulty will change.
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Subreddit Stats: bitcoin top posts from 2013-07-04 to 2013-08-03 01:56 PDT

Period: 29.36 days
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Total 1000 27091
Rate (per day) 34.05 850.72
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Downvotes 17475 19.221884899683204% 43328 25.72173180012942%

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