Playstation 4 im Test: Die will nur spielen -

My guess as to why mining will NOT centralize a ton in the future (w/data). Thoughts?

So i've been thinking about mining centralization a bit lately. Keep in mind i'm not technical at all, so this is just some of my guesses. Looking to see where i'm wrong in my thinking (there's prob more than 1).
lets assume that we looking at the mining industry in 10 years time. Bitcoin has grown a bit, and ASICs are now down to same nanometer lenght as other chips...ASICs have "caught up".
So i started looking at the economics of modern day super computers vs what you can buy off the shelf. Basically what is cost per GFLOP of a supercomputer vs off the shelf item.
using numbers here off the shelf costs:
and here for one of the most recent supercomputers:
we arrive at about 9 cents per GFLOP for the $390Million super computer vs about 12 cents per GFLOP for the off the shelf version. Not too much of a difference between supercomputers and off the shelf version when measuring by cost per GFLOP. Afterall, in the real world, the US military actually built a fairly economical supercomputer using something like 1700 Playstation 3's wired together.
however, hardware costs are only one part of the equation. Electricity costs are also important. We can look at the below link for average electricity prices around the world. I keep hearing Iceland has cheap electricity but according to the chart below, there are plenty of places with comparable prices.
The final area to look at is examining what solar prices/kilowatt will be in 10 years. Could solar provide us with very cheap electricity..practically free for bitcoin miners located in sunny areas like Arizona, etc???
There is plenty of debate about the future of solar, and many links estimating the future cost per kilowatt of solar, but the link below is hoping for about 1.5 cents per kilowatt around the 2020's which would put it among the cheapest on earth according to the Wikipedia article on world wide electricity pricing that i linked above?
TL;DR: Supercomputers today are NOT much more economical that off the shelf processors. Will this hold true for ASICs in 10 years? Will this along with cheap/marginally free solar power lead to a lack of mining centralization? just as cheap (measured $ per hash) for a individual in sunny Arizona to run a few hashes as it would be for a large mining farm? seems its at least POSSIBLE for mining to remain decentralized
submitted by greenearplugs to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

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